Displaying items by tag: bear market
Goldman Sachs went on the record with a bold call last week. They told investors that despite all the fears in the market, a big correction WAS NOT coming. Alessio Rizzi and his team at Goldman say that many indicators are showing a bullish outlook, and that big losses don’t seem likely. According to Rizzi, “more moderate risky asset returns are likely from here, rather than an imminent risk of a sizable correction”. One indicator Goldman cited as very bullish was the ratio between puts and calls. Right now the market is deeply favoring calls, with the ratio nearing the limits of its normal distribution.
FINSUM: So bulls look at this and say “aha, I’m right, the market will rise”; and bears say “exactly as expected, this is a contrarian indicator”! In our opinion, on the whole, there is plenty to be optimistic about.
New jobless data was released this morning and it took the market by surprise. Economists had been calling for new jobless claims to stay around the level of recent weeks—something around 695,00. But what happened was quite eye-opening: they came in at 853,000. The losses show that the economy is starting to feel renewed impacts of the surge in COVID cases. According to a job market expert, “Job destruction has not come to an end … We might be gaining jobs overall, but thousands of people are losing their jobs every week because demand has not returned”. Markets dipped on the release.
FINSUM: This is worrying for the economy. Hard to say if this trend will continue, but certainly not the direction markets have been predicting the economy would be heading.
Make no mistake, in the long run Morgan Stanley is bullish. The problem is that the short-term does not look so bright, according to the bank. While MS raised their S&P 500 target for 2021 to 3,900 (well above today’s 3,350 level), they think the market might be rough in the near term. Citing “the second wave of virus, remaining election uncertainties and the specter of higher rates”, the bank says prices will swing from as low as 3,150 to 3,550 in the short-term. According to Morgan Stanley, “Once sentiment turns from euphoric bullishness, reality will strike and we expect to see the S&P 500 begin to feel the pressure”.
FINSUM: The bank says that without the vaccine news, the market would have fallen 5% already and they basically think that fall is due at any moment.
The market is falling again the day after the Labor Day holiday, and many tech stocks are nearing or in correction territory. It is a rough start to the week, and Goldman Sachs is not offering much hope. The firm published a research piece this weekend which was bullish on stocks overall, but said that another 10% correction may arrive soon. Goldman says that if investors start to doubt the trajectory of the recovery in the face of the super quick snapback in economic output that the market has priced, then stock prices will likely fall.
FINSUM: On the whole Goldman was pretty positive, but they also clearly allowed room for a short-term “shake out” in share prices. This correction we have on our hands might also lead to a change of market leadership, which would be an interesting shift.
You know the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats”? It couldn’t be further from the truth as it concerns the current stock market. The S&P 500 is just about flat, yet if you take a close look, 337 of its component stocks are down. The index is only being held up by a 1% gain from Apple and minor gains from the other 4 stocks that comprise 20% of its entire value. The lack of breadth has been a consistent feature of the recovery over the last several months.
FINSUM: Investors are not expressing any degree of bullishness about the economy, which would be reflected in breadth. Frankly, all the recent gains seem to be simple momentum bets on a small handful of stocks, making the whole recovery feel hollow.