(Washington)

Anyone hoping the current trade war might have stalled will be sorely mistaken today. While Trump says he plans to to impose an additional $200 bn of tariffs on China in September, he has just said he is ready to go to a full $500 bn of tariffs on Chinese imports. When asked if he thought his plans would cause the stock markets to drop, Trump responded “Well, if it does, it does. Look, I'm not doing this for politics. I'm doing this to do this right thing for our country”.

FINSUM: We think the US does currently get a raw deal in a lot of foreign trade, especially with China. However, the manner in which this “negotiation” is proceeding does seem to be unnecessarily disruptive.

(Washington)

In a highly unusual break from presidential tradition, President Trump weighed in yesterday on the Fed’s current policy approach, and he was not happy. Speaking in regard to recent rate hikes and plans to continue doing so, Trump said “I’m not thrilled … Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again ... I am not happy about it. But at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best.” Speaking plainly, Trump continued “I’m just saying the same thing that I would have said as a private citizen … So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as president. I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed. I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up”.

FINSUM: The media is trying to make a very big deal out of this, but in our view, these are pretty benign comments, especially coming from Trump.

(New York)

Barron’s has run a new piece warning advisors that they need to keep an eye on some new and growing financial data software that clients are increasingly using. The services, offered by new and old companies like eMoney, SigFig, and Betterment, focus on financial data aggregation, or letting consumers see their full financial picture in one place. The article warns that investors need to stay abreast of these kind of developments to know how to keep their services one step ahead and not let their business be eaten by commoditizing technologies.

FINSUM: The wealth management landscape is changing rapidly, and given how much tasks that used to be very time-consuming have been revolutionized, it should now be second nature for advisors to constantly look over their shoulder to discern how they can continue to add value.

(Houston)

The oil market is in an odd place right now. Generally described as “tight”—when supply and demand are very close, prices have risen considerably over the last several months. That said, prices have fallen steeply over the last week or so on fears of falling demand and rising supply. That is what makes today’s call on oil so bold. Barron’s, citing a senior research analyst on the oil market, says that prices may rise from their current high $60s range all the way to more than $100 this year. The core of the argument is that supply increases are not enough to offset growing global demand.

FINSUM: We don’t see oil going that high, but it could resume its bullish run. The core idea for us is that the oil market has many ways to increase supply (e.g. using strategic oil reserves, loosening sanctions etc), so we don’t see prices rising that sharply.

(New York)

There has been a lot of speculation lately about the extent to which the current growing trade war may affect the economy and markets. Some expect a benign effect on both. Well, Bloomberg has run a piece arguing that the trade war may lead to a Chinese debt crisis, which could in turn lead to a global financial crisis. The impact of the tariffs on the Chinese economy could be serious. China is already seeing a very high level of defaults, and with the extra burden of tariffs coupled with a weaker Yuan, it could create credit chaos for Beijing. Bloomberg put it this way, saying “That the massive burden of debt will drag the economy into recession is as obvious as the empty towers that rise on every landscape … But on any metric, the amount of new lending each year grows faster than the economy, and the interest newly owed exceeds the incremental rise in GDP. In other words, the whole economy is a Ponzi scheme”.

FINSUM: It is hard to imagine a more forceful comment than that last one from Bloomberg. We don’t know if we would go so far, but given how indebted the Chinese economy is, and their reliance on exports, tariffs could spark a meltdown that then spreads overseas.