Displaying items by tag: volatility
Bonds Once Again a Safe Haven from Equity Risk
Fixed-income professionals at Franklin Templeton and its affiliates expect fixed-income investments to be a safe haven from equities volatility since the financial markets are showing signs of stress. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated that “We believed something would break, even before this banking crisis happened. Now bonds provide safe haven protection for people’s portfolios because our timeline for recession is pulled forward because of this banking stress.” She recently spoke at a webinar on fixed-income mega-trends, entitled “Navigating Rates and Risk.” She was also joined by Jennifer Johnston, senior vice president and director of municipal bond research at Franklin Templeton, and Annabel Rudebeck, head of non-US corporate credit at Western Asset. Currently, yields are around 5% for corporates, which is considered attractive when compared to the longer-term history and government issuances. Johnston added that the tax-free attributes of municipal bonds provide an extra boost, while the muni market tends to be of higher quality than the corporate market. She stated, “We do see some opportunities, particularly out long, where munis are still relatively cheaper than where they’ve been in the past.” Chen also added that “This banking stress is very unique. It’s not driven by credit risk, but by mismanagement of duration.”
Finsum:With the financial markets showing stress, bond professionals at Franklin Templeton and its affiliates believe that fixed-income instruments provide a safe haven for the current stock volatility.
Bond Market Volatility at Highest Since 2008 Financial Crisis
Bond volatility continued to explode last week due to growing contagion fears from U.S. banks. Last Monday, after a weekend in which the U.S. government intervened to protect depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the 2-year U.S. note yield experienced its biggest one-day fall since October 20th, 1987. Outside of U.S. hours, it dropped the most since 1982. That intraday drop of close to 60 basis points even exceeded the declines during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the September 11th, 2001, terrorist attacks, and 1987’s Black Monday market crash. Gregory Staples, head of fixed income North America at DWS Group in New York told MarketWatch that the week’s decline in the 2-year U.S. yield came as the result of “de-risking of portfolios and draining of liquidity, stemming from concerns about the health of the U.S. banking system, exacerbated by questions about the future of Credit Suisse.” The ICE BofAML Move Index, which measures bond-market volatility, surged on Wednesday and Thursday to its highest levels since the fourth quarter of 2008, during the height of the Financial Crisis. Volatility then continued on Friday over concerns around First Republic Bank. This sent Treasury yields plunging, one day after they spiked on the news of a funding deal.
Finsum:Last week, the ICE BofAML Move Index, a measure of bond-market volatility, soared to its highest levels since the 2008 Financial Crisis as banking concerns continue.
Reverberations stemming from SVB
It’s been, um, shaky times, for Silicon Valley Bank. Perhaps you’ve heard.
Well, Wall Street certainly has. On the heels of the air going out of the balloon of the bank, U.S. Treasury markets have been enduring volatility to the max, reported reuters.com.
The ICE Boa MOVE Index (.MOVE) – a measure of anticipated treasuries volatility – has exploded beyond its high in the face of COVID. Today? It’s around levels experienced, during -- you probably had a hunch -- the financial crisis.
Traders were compelled to reverse their bets on steepling rates in light of expectations the Fed would pause or ease up on increases in interest rates given the lighting fast fall of the bank, coupled with Signature Bank’s.
Earlier in the year, Deloitte issued a banking and capital markets outlook in which, among other things, it laid out the global economy’s remaining fragility entering the year, according to deloitte.com. Uncertainties? You betcha, such as those stemming from a cocktails of factors, including the invasion of Ukraine, a topsy turvy supply chain, barreling inflation and a global tightening of monetary policy.
Banks, over the long run, the outlook continued, should look past product, industry or business model boundaries and seek new sources of value.
Female Investors Uneasy About Retirement Due to Volatility and Inflation
According to a report by Nationwide, women investors are getting more uneasy about their retirement prospects as market volatility continues and inflation remains a concern. Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, which is sponsored by its Nationwide Retirement Institute, found that more than 40% of women believe the U.S. is in a financial crisis, with another 24% believing that one is looming. Women are also feeling discouraged about retirement preparedness as the report found that nearly nine in 10 women (87%) said that no matter what they do to manage their finances, they still feel blindsided by events outside their control. That marks a double-digit percentage point increase over last year as only 76% voiced that sentiment in 2022. Nationwide also noted that more than half of non-retired women investors (54%) believe that inflation poses the most immediate challenge to their retirement. Thirty-eight percent also cited economic recession as a disruptor, while 21% pointed to market volatility. The “Advisor Authority” research was conducted online within the U.S. by the Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide in January. The survey included 511 advisors and financial professionals and 789 investors aged 18 or over with investable assets of more than $10,000.
Finsum:According to Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, women investors are more uneasy about their retirement portfolios as market volatility, inflation, and a potential economic recession remain a concern.
Hedge Fund Chief: Inflation to Remain High in Volatile Markets
According to Man Group boss Luke Ellis, investors should get used to volatility in the markets. Last Tuesday, Ellis predicted inflation will remain high because of strong wage growth in much more volatile markets. He stated, “It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again. We’re in a different paradigm.” He added, “The base effects are running out and we still have very significant wage inflation. It’s not squeezing services [sector] wage inflation, and services is such a big part of the economy. You can’t get consistently to [a] 2 percent [inflation target] when you have 6 to 7 percent wage inflation.” Ellis also said that he did not believe stocks had yet bottomed out. He compared the current environment to the 1970s when the real return from equities after inflation was about zero. His comments come as U.S. stocks fell in February with investors growing concerned that the strength of the economy might require higher interest rates, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose more than expected in January. In addition, both France and Spain also reported a rise in inflation, beating forecasts.
Finsum:Man Group boss Luke Ellis predicts inflation will remain high due to strong wage growth in volatile markets.