Displaying items by tag: fed

In an article for Advisor Perspectives, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree shared some strategies that can be used to generate income in the current market whether using model portfolios or ETFs.

Of course, this is a big change from the last decade when the Fed’s dovish policies meant that dividend yields on equities exceeded bond yields for the most part. This is no longer the case as the Fed is waging an aggressive hiking campaign to curb inflation even at the cost of a bump in the unemployment rate or a recession.

Thus, the Fed has already hiked rates to 5% and is forecast to hike two or three more times before the current cycle is terminated. More important, the Fed is ‘data-dependent’ and willing to change course depending on inflation and/or financial stability concerns.

This uncertainty and elevated rates mean there is a plethora of opportunities for investors to find income. For those who are comfortable with duration risk, high-yield bonds and equities are an option in addition to ETFs. For those not comfortable with duration risk, shorter-term notes and floating rate options are a good fit.

Finsum: After more than a decade of a paucity of options for income investors, the current market is offering a variety of opportunities.

Treasuries returned 3% in Q1 which is its best quarterly performance since 2020. In an article for Bloomberg, Liz McCormick and Michael Mackenzie covered some reasons for why this outperformance should continue. 

Three of the major factors are expectations of increased demand from Japan, a weeklong pause in auctions, and strong inflows from institutional and retail investors amid higher rates and wobbles for the banking system. 

The next major, market-moving event will be the March jobs report on Friday. Some analysts see the potential for weakness in Treasuries if there is a strong report regarding wages and jobs. This could undermine of the catalyst behind the Treasury rally - expectations that the Fed’s hiking cycle is nearly over. On the other hand, Treasuries could rally with a weak report.

Demand for Treasuries spiked amid the bank failures last month. As a result, yields for short-term notes tumbled to their lowest levels of the year with the 2-year Treasury yield declining by a 100 basis points. It also led to market expectations of the Fed terminal rate declining, while odds of the next Fed move being a cut rather than a hike, also jumped higher.

Finsum: Treasuries outperformed in Q1 with a major catalyst being bank failures which led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.

According to Nareit, an organization that represents the REIT industry, REITs posted their best monthly returns since January 2019 and outperformed the broader markets. The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index jumped 10.1% while the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs index rose 10.7%. Those figures compare favorably to the 7.0% gain of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market and the 6.7% gain for the Russell 1000. The strong returns came as a result of investor optimism stemming from the widely expected belief that the Federal Reserve will pivot from its rate hiking cycle as inflation slows. In addition, REIT operational performance continues to be strong. For instance, REITs reported a new all-time high of $19.9 billion in funds from operations in the third quarter of 2022 according to Nareit’s T-Tracker. During January, all property sectors had a positive performance. The top sectors include lodging/resorts with a 17.1% gain, industrials which rose 13.7%, and data centers at 13.2%. Even the laggard sectors were positive, with retail rising 7.4% and infrastructure gaining 6.8%. Global real estate markets also performed strongly with the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed index gaining 9.0% compared to a 7.3% gain for the FTSE Global All Cap. In terms of regions, Developed Europe led with a return of 10.8%, followed by North America at 10.7%, and Developed Asia at 3.7%.

Finsum:REITs posted the strongest monthly performance since January 2019 as investors remain optimistic that the Fed will slow its rate hiking policy and REIT operational performance remains robust.

After a tough year in the equity markets, this year is shaping up to be a better year for investors as the S&P 500 is up over 7% through Monday’s close. This is happening amid numerous recession predictions across Wall Street. The rise in the stock market this year can be attributed to the growing sentiment that the worst is over when it comes to inflation and rising interest rates. In fact, a gauge of future volatility in the U.S. bond that tracks interest-rate turbulence is now showing an increasingly encouraging trend that is supporting the optimism in the market. The ICE BofA MOVE Index is extending a slide that started in October. It has now fallen to lows not seen since March when the Fed started its aggressive interest-rate increases. The index continued to fall after the Fed’s latest meeting on Wednesday, where according to billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach, Fed Chair Jerome Powell “didn't fight back in his speech Wednesday against market expectations that the Fed will soften its rate policy later this year.” The Fed raised benchmark borrowing costs by only 25 basis points, the smallest increase since last March. Over the past year, the trajectory of the S&P 500 has moved inversely to the MOVE index, showing the market's sensitivity to the interest-rate outlook.

Finsum:The stock market has rebounded this year as the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond volatility, has been sliding since October.

While bonds are generally known for their stability, 2022 marked a deviance from the norm. The question for advisors is, how should they approach 2023? Mariam Kamshad, head of portfolio strategy for Goldman Sachs personal financial management, and Guido Petrelli, CEO, and founder of Merlin Investor spoke to SmartAsset to provide some guidance. First advisors should expect a return to the norm. Kamshad said 2022 was an unusually bad environment for bonds with the Federal Reserve raising rates to a 15-year high. She believes that's unlikely to repeat and expects both yields and capital gains returns to stabilize. Second, advisors should pay attention to inflation and government bonds. Kamshad believes that inflation is still the biggest issue in the economy and expects it to continue slowing in 2023, which would likely slow interest rates. Her team considers duration risk a better bet than credit risk. Kamshad's team also recommends investors consider government bonds. The team expects intermediate Treasurys to outperform cash. They also expect municipal bonds to pick back up. Petrelli recommends following the unemployment rate and the quit rate as they are “good metrics for the strength of the economy overall and a window into where bonds are headed.” He believes a potential recession is one of the biggest questions facing the bond market. In a recession, Petrelli expects investors to favor short-term bonds.

Finsum:According to two portfolio analysts, advisors should expect a return to the norm for bonds, but they should also keep an eye on inflation, government bonds, and the jobs report.