Seems that fixed income’s calling and it might pay to presume it’s not someone hawking insurance.
In 2023, it “has a huge potential” to dispense strong returns, according to Joanna Gallegos, co founder of BondBloxx Investment Management, reported yahoo.com, which carried an article earlier in the year which originally was published on ETFTrends.com. That said, it remains a good idea to be cautious.
Worth investing time in, especially: high yield corporate debt. That’s because they offer high yields and it’s projected by Bond Boxx that corporate defaults, compared to their long term average, will remain lower.
Tormented by hyper interest rate spikes that culminated in spiraling bonds yields, 2022 was one of the worse for fixed income, added money.usnews.com.
It sparked a deep dive of price of fixed income assets, and longer duration issues in particular.
This year? Oh how the page turns. Paul Malloy, head of municipals at Vanguard, said "the 2023 outlook is drastically different than the position we found ourselves in last year,” Indeed, fixed-income investors started 2022 with a near-zero federal funds rate, but are now entering 2023 with a rate of 4%-plus. According to Malloy, the Federal Reserve "front-loaded" much of its policy tightening this cycle and is likely nearing a wrap.
“The fixed income asset class has a huge potential to deliver better performance in 2023,” Gallegos said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” “We’re at new rate levels we haven’t seen in over a decade plus, and so, you’re really resetting valuations in a way that are very attractive.”
Goldman Sachs Asset Management recently launched the Goldman Sachs Community Municipal Bond ETF (GMUN). The ETF, which trades on the NYSE Arca, seeks to provide investment results that closely correspond, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Community Municipal Index, a rules-based index designed to track the municipal securities market with remaining maturities between one and 15 years. The ETF also has screens that consider certain social or environmental factors. By focusing on 1-to-15-year maturities within the investment grade municipal bond universe, the portfolio will seek to deliver diversified market exposure with lower duration and higher credit quality than the broader municipal market. The ETF is managed by Goldman’s Municipal Fixed Income team which brings decades of experience with an active and disciplined approach to investing in a market that is vast and fragmented. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.25%. According to Goldman, targeted allocation into municipalities and projects with positive impact will provide the opportunity to invest in education, healthcare, clean energy, and more community-related initiatives.
Finsum:Goldman recently launched its first muni ETF, the Goldman Sachs Community Municipal Bond ETF (GMUN), which provides exposure to tax-exempt municipal securities with remaining maturities between one and 15 years.
Concerns over the banking sector are currently making things rough in the $8 trillion agency mortgage bond market. Agency mortgage bonds are widely held by banks, bond funds, and insurers as they are backed by mortgage loans from government-controlled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are far less likely to default than most debt. They are also easy to buy and sell quickly, which is why they were Silicon Valley Bank’s biggest investment before its troubles. However, agency mortgage bonds are vulnerable to rising interest rates like all long-term bonds. This pushed their prices down last year and also saddled banks such as Silicon Valley Bank. In fact, the risk premium on a widely followed Bloomberg index of agency MBS hit its highest level since October last week, as climbing interest rates led to volatile global markets. According to bond fund managers, this certainly reflected fears that other regional banks might have to sell their holdings. When benchmark interest rates rise, bonds that were sold at times of lower rates lose value. For instance, prices of low-coupon agency mortgage bonds started dropping about a year ago, when the Fed raised interest rates to tame inflation and also indicated that it might start selling the mortgage bonds that it owned.
Finsum:With faltering banks such as Silicon Valley Bank holding large amounts of agency mortgage bonds, the turmoil in the banking industry is roiling the $8 trillion agency mortgage bond market.
Bond volatility continued to explode last week due to growing contagion fears from U.S. banks. Last Monday, after a weekend in which the U.S. government intervened to protect depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the 2-year U.S. note yield experienced its biggest one-day fall since October 20th, 1987. Outside of U.S. hours, it dropped the most since 1982. That intraday drop of close to 60 basis points even exceeded the declines during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the September 11th, 2001, terrorist attacks, and 1987’s Black Monday market crash. Gregory Staples, head of fixed income North America at DWS Group in New York told MarketWatch that the week’s decline in the 2-year U.S. yield came as the result of “de-risking of portfolios and draining of liquidity, stemming from concerns about the health of the U.S. banking system, exacerbated by questions about the future of Credit Suisse.” The ICE BofAML Move Index, which measures bond-market volatility, surged on Wednesday and Thursday to its highest levels since the fourth quarter of 2008, during the height of the Financial Crisis. Volatility then continued on Friday over concerns around First Republic Bank. This sent Treasury yields plunging, one day after they spiked on the news of a funding deal.
Finsum:Last week, the ICE BofAML Move Index, a measure of bond-market volatility, soared to its highest levels since the 2008 Financial Crisis as banking concerns continue.
Over the past two weeks, Treasuries have been considered a safe haven for investors amid the current turmoil in the banking system. While Monday offered a quick respite as investors learned of the news that UBS is rescuing Credit Suisse in a $3.24 billion deal, yields are expected to move lower in the days and weeks ahead if the turmoil continues. Kelsey Berro, a portfolio manager in J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s global fixed-income group told Barron’s that “The direction for Treasury yields should be lower." She added that “This month’s bank-related volatility shows that high-quality bonds are working as a portfolio diversifier this year.” Rick Bensignor, managing partner of Bensignor Investment Strategies concurs. He told Barron’s that he thinks Treasury prices will go higher, pushing yields lower. He says that he “Can see the 10-year Treasury’s yield falling to 3.2% or even 3.1%, compared with 3.48% on Monday afternoon.” Bensignor expects that “There will be more banks that are going to let us know how much trouble they are in. It’s going to force people into the safety of the bond market.”
Finsum:While Monday offered a brief respite, treasuries yields are expected to move lower if the upheaval in the banking system continues, according to bond strategists.
When stocks are down like they were last year, investors usually look towards treasuries for safety. But last year was unlike any other year. While the S&P 500 fell 18%, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index slumped 13%. However, a year like 2022 is unlikely to happen again any time soon. According to analysts, that leaves “room for those bonds to reclaim their role as a core risk-off allocation for asset owners this year.” For example, when SVB Financial Group recently announced hefty losses, the S&P 500 index fell 3.4% between March 8th and March 13th. But investors looking for a safe haven in long-dated Treasuries sent yields plunging, providing bondholders with a gain of more than 4%. Many analysts expect the conditions that led to close correlations between the stock and bond market “to prove ephemeral.” According to Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist with Putnam Investments, the biggest risk for those strong correlations is when "The Fed gets really fired up to fight inflation, as with the central bank's 'uh-oh' moment last year — when inflationary pressures it had deemed transitory proved anything but, forcing the central bank to shift aggressively to catch-up mode.” He added, “With the Fed frontloading its fight against inflation last year, the conditions required to maintain correlations at 1 this year are unlikely to persist.”
Finsum:With the Fed front-loading its fight against inflation last year, the conditions that led to a high correlation between the stock and bonds markets, aren’t likely to persist.