Wealth Management
High yield bond ETFs are seeing a surge of inflows as risk appetites reignite. In November, US-listed high yield bond ETFs had $10.8 billion of inflows which surpassed the previous record of $8.6 billion in April of 2020. The inflows in November were enough to offset the $8.7 billion of outflows in the previous 3 months. Globally, there was $127.5 billion of inflows into ETFs which was the highest amount since December 2021.
There was strength across certain parts of the fixed income complex as investment grade corporate bond ETFs saw $10 billion inflows which is the most since January. In contrast, Treasuries saw their lowest levels of inflows since January 2022. There was a sharp decline from the $30.4 billion inflows in October to just $4.3 billion in November, a reflection of the U-turn in sentiment.
According to Karim Chedid, head of investment strategy for BlackRock’s iShares arm in the Emea region, “Investors have cash to put to work, and if the assessment of the investment environment is better than expected, that dry powder can be put to work.” Another factor is that retail investors have many more low-cost options when it comes to high yield ETFs which seem like an ideal vehicle to take advantage of a ‘soft landing’ scenario which should be bullish for the asset class.
Finsum: High yield ETFs saw a surge of inflows in November. Here are some of the reasons why the category should benefit from a soft landing.
Direct indexing has been around for 30 years but was once only accessible and viable for ultra-high net-worth investors. Now, technology and lower transaction costs have made it available for a much wider swath of investors who are able to benefit from direct indexing’s tax-loss harvesting and customization abilities.
Interestingly, the strategy is finding particular favor among millennial investors who are interested in tax optimization and personalization which are not possible through traditional passive investing. Advisors can customize holdings in a way that reflects a client’s values and preferences such as prioritizing ESG criteria or adjusting a portfolio based on a client’s risk profile. Holdings can also be customized to account for a clients’ unique financial situation, which is also not possible through investing in ETFs or mutual funds.
For advisors, it presents an opportunity to differentiate themselves in a competitive landscape by offering personalized and optimized solutions. Direct indexing is likely to continue growing as it’s becoming increasingly available through many online brokerages and wealth management firms. It’s also consistent with many younger investors’ desired preference to have their personal holdings reflect their values and beliefs.
Finsum: Direct indexing is growing at a rapid pace, and it’s finding favor with Millennial investors due to its tax optimization and personalization.
JPMorgan issued its 28th annual Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions report, which provides long-term forecasts for various asset classes in addition to detailing risks and upside catalysts. One of the recommendations in its report is to add a 25% position to alternative investments which it believes will increase returns by 60 basis points on an annual basis while also reducing volatility.
In terms of the 60/40 portfolio, JPMorgan is forecasting annual returns of 7% which is a slight decrease from last year’s forecast of 7.2% annual returns. Pulkit Sharma, JPMorgan’s head of real assets and alternative investment strategy, remarked, “The alternative asset classes are becoming more essential than optional in the broader 60/40 toolkit. Inflation is going to be more and more sticky, so you need more diversifiers and inflation-sensitive asset classes.”
The bank also believes that investors need to seek out diversification especially, since it expects continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility stemming from central bank decisions. Fixed income is simply not an effective diversifier in higher-inflation environments as evidenced by the last couple of years. Some of the alternative assets it recommends boosting diversification are real assets, hedge funds, and private credit.
Finsum: In its annual long-term review and forecast of various asset classes, JPMorgan slightly reduced its expectation of long-term returns for a 60/40 portfolio and stressed the role of alternatives to boost returns and improve diversification.
More...
Treasury yields were higher following the November jobs report which showed a bigger than expected decline in the unemployment rate. The report suggests that the labor market remains tight which could prolong the Fed’s hiking cycle. However, the bulk of the gain in yields was given up in ensuing sessions as traders remain more focused on weakening inflation and softer economic growth.
According to the Labor Department, the US economy added 199,000 jobs in November which was just above consensus expectations of 190,000 jobs added and an improvement from an increase of 150,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% below consensus expectations of 3.9%. Some note that the report was helped by auto and entertainment workers returning to work after strikes.
Some traders are looking for labor market weakness as the next impetus for the Fed to shift its policy. Clearly, this report dispelled notions that the economy is contracting and provides more ammunition for the ‘soft landing’ hypothesis.
Wage growth also moderated to fall to 0.4% monthly and 4% on an annual basis. In terms of the economy, government and healthcare were the biggest sources of jobs growth, while the retail sector and transportation & warehousing shed the most jobs.
Finsum: Treasury yields were slightly higher following the November jobs report which came in stronger than expectations.
Charles Schwab is forecasting positive returns for fixed income as the economy slows and inflation continues to fall. However, it expects volatility to linger given uncertainty about the Fed’s policy moves.
Schwab notes that yields have been unusually volatile as the 10-year yield has ranged between 3.5% and 5% over the past 12 months. Yet, it believes that short and long-term yields have peaked for the cycle.
It sees downward pressure for inflation given that supply issues have abated, while it sees the impact of tighter monetary policy continuing to materialize, also adding to downward pressure on inflation. Despite this bullish forecast for bonds, it doesn’t see a return to the pre-Covid era of low rates and quantitative easing (QE).
In terms of economic growth, Schwab notes some risks as high real rates are impacting the economy as they create more incentives for consumers to save rather than spend. Two more headwinds are tighter lending standards at banks and the Fed continuing to unwind its balance sheet. Another factor contributing to volatility is that the Fed could elect to keep rates higher as it wouldn’t want to squander gains made in the fight against inflation.
Finsum: Charles Schwab sees positive returns for fixed income in 2024 due to slower economic growth and falling inflation. However, it expects volatility to continue given uncertainty over the Fed.
High net-worth clients may be facing a major issue due to the upcoming expiration of the 2017 tax cuts after 2025. This will mean the expiration of higher federal gift and estate tax exemptions. The exemptions, which encompass tax-free caps on gifts during life or at death, will be $13.6 million per individual or $27.2 million for spouses in 2024 but will be cut by 50% in 2026.
This will mean that many more high net-worth clients will be impacted by the estate tax. And, this is the time to begin planning around this new reality given that many estate tax planning strategies take months or even more than a year to implement.
Some married couples can take advantage of the current higher levels of exemption by removing assets from their estate via lifetime gifts. According to Robert Dietz, the national director of tax research at Bernstein Private Wealth Management in Minneapolis,“The reality is you have to give away more than half to see any benefit from the gift in terms of the exclusion going away.” And for clients uncomfortable making these gifts now, they can keep control of their assets by opening a trust.
Finsum: The expiration of the 2017 tax bill means that high net-worth clients will have to grapple with much lower exemptions on tax-free giving.