FINSUM
Beware of Stock Concentration
(New York)
This topic gets thrown around a reasonable amount in the media, but because it seems to defy normal human perception, we wanted to run a story on it—the growing and dangerous level of stock concentration. So what do we mean by that? We mean that three stocks—Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix, have accounted for almost 50% of all the gains of the S&P 500 so far this year. This kind of concentration plays itself out time and again, whether it be in broad index tracking, or in niche sector ETFs, which end up being hugely weighted to just a few stocks.
FINSUM: Anyone can understand the danger of concentration at the point of purchase, but one of the key points to remember is that time tends to make a portfolio more and more unbalanced as the winners inevitably grab a larger share and the losers less.
Courts May Vacate the Fiduciary Rule
(Washington)
None other than Eugene Scalia, son of former Supreme Court justice Anton Scalia, has now written a formal letter asking that the courts expedite their ruling on the fiduciary rule. Scalia says that Massachusetts’ new attack on Scottrade is a sign that the rule needs to be settled once and for all, as having it half-implemented means heightened legal risk. The wealth management industry has been waiting several months for a final decision on a fiduciary rule case in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans. Scalia called for urgency, saying “The action also shows that the fiduciary rule is exacerbating the risk of litigation, even absent 'best-interest contracts”.
FINSUM: There is absolutely no point to having a half-implemented rule. The government (courts included) either needs to fully implement a rule, or get rid of the concept entirely, because the half-in nature of today’s arrangement if not beneficial for anyone.
Apple’s New Revenue Renaissance
(San Francisco)
It is hard to overstate how well Apple is doing right now. Despite flat volume in phone sales, the huge prices of its devices mean not only are its revenue and profits surging, but it now commands its largest ever share of the smartphone market (51% globally). The company’s first quarter revenue was up 13% from last year, with net income hitting a jaw dropping $20.1 bn in the first quarter. Apple now commands 76% of all smartphone revenue in the US.
FINSUM: Apple’s ability to compel consumers to pay exorbitant prices for its product is a sign of strength for the overall business. Imagine if the iPhone X had actually been a hit?
North Korea Backed Out of US Meeting
(Seoul)
There was supposed to be a landmark meeting between the US and North Korea at the Seoul Olympics. It should have been a chance to start a diplomatic reconciliation. Vice president Mike Pence was set to meet a delegation from North Korea at the South Korean version of the White House. But alas, it was not to be, as on the day of the meeting (which was scheduled for February 10th), the North Koreans backed out of the meeting, allegedly upset at Pence’s stern public speech on the country’s human rights record.
FINSUM: North Korea has done very well politically at these Olympics, mostly by “humanizing” themselves to the world. However, a real diplomatic engagement would have been a great step.
Are Treasuries at 3% Good News?
(New York)
Here is a tough question to judge—are Treasury bonds yielding 3% good news or bad for the markets? Investors themselves haven’t made up their minds. At first the prospect of rising yields spooked investors, but they have recently grown much more tolerant. While at first investors were shy about rising rates ending the recovery, higher yields now seem to be interpreted as a sign that we have finally overcome worries about “secular stagnation” in the economy.
FINSUM: Our own view is that rates rising back to “normal” is a sign of the economy doing well, and thus is nothing to fear for equity investors.