(New York)

Many investors are currently worried about the bond market. There is a lot of uncertainty over just how much rates and yields will rise and what that might mean for the economy. Well, Bloomberg is taking a strong stand on the issue, arguing that a bond Armageddon is on the way. The paper says that all the focus has been on ten-years, but that 30s might be where the danger is. They are within shouting distance of their 2015-2017 highs, and are very close to the 3.24% level, which would signal the difference between an orderly selloff and a full-on rout.

FINSUM: There may be some short-term volatility, but our overall view is that there won’t be a cataclysm in bonds. Global populations are aging and people need income. We expected yields to stay in check and spreads to narrow even if sovereign yields rise.

(Washington)

The fiduciary rule is starting to throw its weight around despite the fact that it is only half-implemented and very much on the regulatory rocks. Massachusetts is currently going after Scottrade under the rule, and now Barron’s says there will be another victim—annuity sales. The asset class saw its total sales fall 8% in 2017 to $203.5 bn, and those figures are expected to fall further this year unless the fiduciary rule is reversed. “The impact to IRA annuity sales was much more pronounced than nonqualified annuity sales”, says an industry expert.

FINSUM: This is a huge market that is being eroded by the rule. Hopefully the SEC and DOL come in with a new rule this summer.

(New York)

In an article that contrasts strongly to some others we are running today, here is a different view on bonds coming out of the Wall Street Journal—that the bull market is far from over. The argument is based on two interconnected factors. The first is that rates and yields do look likely to rise in the short term, but at the same time, there are many signs the business cycle is poised to end, which will bring on a recession. When that happens, yields will once again plunge, keeping the bond market surging.

FINSUM: If a recession does come then rates and yields will likely drop again. Unless of course inflation sticks around and we get caught in a stagflationary period.

(Washington)

Whether one likes it or not, Treasury yields hitting 3%, which they look bound to do, will be a major event. The big question is what to do once it happens. Is it the signal of a sharp move higher in yields, or will it be the climax to a short-lived selloff? The reality is that if Treasuries move just a little above three, there could be a strong wave of selling. However, strategies betting against volatility have been paired back in recent weeks, so the selling might not be as furious as one might fear.

FINSUM: Nobody has any idea what will happen if Treasuries move above 3%. As far as bonds, we expect that there will be more and more organic buyers above 3%, which should keep things in check. On the stock side, we do not see why a move higher would be too bad, as the spread to equity yields will still be wide.

(New York)

In an article that addresses an issue unknown to us—that Americans don’t give US stocks enough love (?!)—BlackRock says that investors should buy American stocks in some select sectors. BlackRock says that “We have upgraded our tactical view of U.S. equities to overweight from neutral” continuing “The reason: Impending fiscal stimulus is supercharging U.S. earnings growth expectations”. Blackrock says it likes American tech stocks, US financials, and momentum and value plays.

FINSUM: US stocks surely haven’t been short on love over the last year, but we suspect BlackRock just means in the last few weeks. In that perspective, we agree that things aren’t as bearish as many fear.