(New York)

The media is reacting very strongly to a new move by Morningstar. The legendary fund rating company has just taken the somewhat surprising move of replacing outside funds with some of its own in its “managed portfolio service”, which allows financial advisors to outsource investment decisions to Morningstar. It will now rely on its own funds as the building blocks of those portfolios. Its own funds will be scored by the company itself, but it says an algorithm will do this. The company’s CIO says “We have structures in place to make sure [investment management] is at arm’s length from research. There is structural separation of research and investment management”.

FINSUM: We think this is a ridiculous conflict of interest, made even sillier by the fact that Morningstar acts like an algorithm is any less biased than a human rating system. As if Morningstar did not write the algorithm in the first place…

(New York)

As fees fall, there is an inevitable reality in the US asset management industry—scale is everything. Investors need to deeply understand this concern if they have money in the sector. For instance, analysts and the market are putting so much preference on large managers, that one analyst just upgraded BlackRock to outperform, while downgrading Invesco and WisdomTree, even though BlackRock’s P/E ratio is 18.6, and the latter two’s are an average of just over 10. BlackRock’s stock is down 15% in the last year, while Invesco and WisdomTree have both fallen more than 30%.

FINSUM: The more fees need to be cut because of competition, the more money one needs under management to maintain profitability. Hence the battle for scale.

(New York)

Right now everyone seems to be focusing on the possibility of an inverted yield curve occurring between the 2 and 10-year Treasury. However, that might not be the best recession predictor after all. If you are strictly focusing on yields, then the 1 and 10-year is better, as it gives less false positives. But speaking more broadly, the M1 money supply and housing starts are other great places to look as both tend to peak well before a recession; M1 is usually about a year, and housing starts two years.

FINSUM: The reality is that if you take a broader view, things don’t look too bad. M1 is still growing, as are housing starts, so those indicators look healthy.

(Washington)

Everyday it seems less likely that the current SEC best interest rule, “Regulation best interest”, will make it through to implementation in anything near its current form. Not only has the industry complained about its governing of titles, but many say the rule’s complex grouping-but-delineation between brokers and advisors just doesn’t make sense. Now, the group of advocates that succeeded in bringing down the DOL’s fiduciary rule have officially turned their sights on the SEC rule. The group, called NAIFA, says it supports a best interest standard, but vehemently protests the restriction on the use of titles.

FINSUM: We commiserate with the SEC because we understand the logic they used to make this rule, but we do feel the current iteration is doomed.

(New York)

One of the market’s favorite prognosticators has just called for a big financial crisis. Mark Mobius, 81, veteran investor, thinks that EMs are going to plunge, and that the normalization of interest rates and monetary policy will cause a crisis. “There’s no question we’ll see a financial crisis sooner or later because we must remember we’re coming off from a period of cheap money … There’s going to be a real squeeze for many of these companies that depended upon cheap money to keep on going”, says Mobius.

FINSUM: Emerging markets are currently having a rough time and the rise in rates is going to be turbulent, but calling for a Crisis seems a bit premature.