(New York)

One of the big annual market traditions has begun: banks and their analysts put of their year-ahead forecasts. This year has seen a wide range of forecasts, but one thing is becoming apparent—analysts are bullish, and more so than usual. Jefferies has the most aggressive forecast, saying the S&P 500 will close 2021 at 4,250; it is at 3,662 now. Analysts are bullish because of the coming vaccine and central banks which will continue to be accommodative. However, Barclays adds a third consideration—that the economy is doing much better than anyone thought it would be at this point. According to Barclays “with central banks set to remain accommodative for several years, a likely drop in global trade tensions, and unappetizing fixed income returns, we remain overweight risk assets over core bonds”.

FINSUM: Yes valuations are high, but given the overall economic position the US is in (including the vaccine), it is hard not to be optimistic.

(New York)

There has been a lot of talk about stocks this year, and a great deal of consternation about rates and bond prices. Yet despite all this, or maybe because of it, a middle-ground asset class has become one of the best performing of the year. Convertible securities are having a banner year. The $325 bn sector has returned over 36% through the end of November. A big portion of the gains has come from the outperformance of Tesla, which accounts for about 10% of the convertibles market. But there have been other nice victories too, such as “reopening” stocks like Carnival, Southwest Airlines, Lyft, American Airlines, and Dick’s Sporting Goods.

FINSUM: Converts do a good job capturing upside while protecting against upside, and this year has been a perfect storm for them.

(New York)

With markets at all-time highs, but COVID restrictions tightening and the potential for a blue Senate looming, many advisors are feeling that now might be a good time to retreat into value stocks. Lower priced stocks have done very well over the last couple of months, showing good momentum on top of their theoretical valuation insulation. With that in mind, here are three very highly ranked large cap value mutual funds. The first is American Funds’ Washington Mutual Investors Fund Class A (AWSHX), sporting an expense ratio of 0.59% and an average three-year return of 9.7%. The second is the MFS Equity Income Fund Class A (EQNAX), which holds a more diversified group of securities, including some international stocks and convertibles. Finally, check out the Fidelity Equity-Income Fund (FEQIX), which tends to focus on income-producing securities.

FINSUM: A nice hybrid between appreciation and income is a good approach for right now, so the latter two seem look good buys. More broadly, value stocks appear a smart choice given the particular moment in markets.

(Washington)

As Biden takes the White House, all eyes in the wealth management industry are on regulations. Biden seems likely to take a much harder line on industry regulations than Trump did. The most focus is on the DOL, as the Biden team has made it clear that a “true” fiduciary rule is part of the agenda. No one quite knows if that will come from a tweaking of Reg BI or a restoration/update of the original DOL rule. One thing that has caught the attention of the industry is that Bernie Sanders appears a top candidate to take over the DOL, which could bring his unique approach, and almost certainly a new hardline fiduciary rule.

FINSUM: Bernie Sanders taking the helm at the DOL would be very ominous for wealth management. That said, one thing that has been clearly broadcast by the administration is that the DOL’s first agenda will be on healthcare (because of the pandemic) and secondly, it will be on raising the minimum wage to $15.

(San Francisco)

One of the questions swirling in the back (or front!) of investors’ minds is whether big tech megacaps are overvalued. They have had a stellar run this year and are trading at rich multiples, which has led to fears of overvaluation. On the other hand, they still seem like they might be the best growth play in the market. At the end of September one could argue things had gotten out of hand. FAAMG stocks were trading at 35x earnings while the rest of the S&P 500 was at 12x, the widest gap since 2000. However, since then fortunes have reversed, with the spread now only 31x to 20x.

FINSUM: So the big question is whether the shrinking of the spread means there is margin for FAAMG growth, or it is a part of a larger trend towards valuation parity? We think it depends on the regulatory path that new administration takes.