(New York)

The prospect for rising inflation has been terrifying the market, and investors need a way to play it. April gold futures peaked at $1750 on intraday trading after the recent Federal Reserve decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged, and that tells investors something important: gold may be the way to go. Moreover, Powell said the fed funds rate would remain unchanged until 2023, even if economic news improved. The Fed even plans to tolerate higher than 2% inflation given inflation has averaged well below the Fed’s Target the past year. This was enough to spike gold prices as investors are now as concerned about future inflation as many investors see the commodity as a hedge. Treasury yield rises had many investors worried the Fed would preemptively tighten, and Gold was down before investors realized how committed the Fed was.

FINSUM: Spreads between inflation-indexed and nominal bonds (TIPS spreads) indicate that rising yields are driven by inflation risk. Gold is one of the most assured hedges against future Inflation.

(St. Louis)

Stifel is a well-regarded firm in our industry. However, one characteristic of it that doesn’t work for all brokers is that they have an employee model. This runs counter to many of the independents with whom Stifel often gets grouped. Well, that looks like it is about to change as the firm has just hired a leading executive away from Wells FiNet in order to grow Stifel’s independent side, which currently stands at only 90 advisors, or only 4% of their total advisors. The firm is rebranding its independent arm to Stifel Independent Advisors and is looking to recruit new advisors to join.

FINSUM: This seems long overdue in our eyes. Stifel is a great brand and there is untapped interest for advisors to join them as independents.

(Washington)

Brokers, advisors, anyone covered by Reg BI, look out for a crackdown by the SEC. Former chief of FINRA, Susan Schroeder, says that enforcement is likely to start soon (i.e. this year) and may be “very aggressive”. According to Schroeder, “Early enforcement actions will be predicated on things like policies and procedures, but by past SEC standards, that is very aggressive”, and if the enforcement actions “are predicated on things like inadequate training or failures to have policies and procedures, from a legal theory perspective, that’s aggressive”.

FINSUM: So any way you cut it, SEC enforcement of the DOL rule this year looks like it is going to be intense. Brokers beware.

(New York)

The annuities world is generally not what most advisors would describe as “exciting”. Annuities are crucial products which fill a valuable void for millions of clients, but there is nothing in the space akin to a sizzling thematic ETF. However, New York Life recently launched a very interesting product that brings a degree of flexibility to the space that has never been available before. Their new Index Flex offering combines the benefits of variable annuities with those of index and fixed annuities, and very excitingly, allows holders to move between the two. Index Flex is essentially a hybrid product that combines the predictability of an index-linked annuity with the upside potential of a variable annuity. Taken as a whole, this is a combination of benefits that is only available at NYL.

FINSUM: As our advisor readers will know, we cover annuities to a significant extent and this new product launch is pretty rousing to see as the ability to shift between strategies is a highly unusual and beneficial feature for clients.

(Houston)

Commodities are doing very well this year. Every big bank, including Goldman Sachs, thinks we may be starting a new commodities super cycle. The big question is exactly which commodities and who will be the big winners. Everything from food, to metals, to oil has been rising and this creates some clear winners, particularly producers of those commodities. That means a big windfall for countries like Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile, who are big net exporters of various raw materials. It is net importers that get hurt the worst, with an absolute behemoth—China—likely to suffer the most, as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities in the world. In fact, it almost single-handed drove the big commodities boom in the 2000s.

FINSUM: So the key here is picking the right emerging markets. Additionally, investors may want to double-think investing in oil, as production hikes could undermine prices quickly.