Displaying items by tag: macro

With signs that inflation is starting to tick higher and renewed concerns about the stability of banks, many investors are looking to shield their portfolio from a rise in volatility. As 2022 demonstrated, rising inflation creates conditions that are unfavorable for stocks and bonds. 

One way that investors can protect their portfolios is to increase their allocation to fixed index annuities. They can help investors reduce risk while still allowing for accumulation. A fixed index annuity (FIA) functions similarly to a traditional annuity as it guarantees some payment while allowing for deferral of taxes. However, the key difference is that it also tracks a specific index to allow for appreciation of the principal as well. 

Unlike fixed income or equities, there is much less downside risk and sensitivity to interest rates. Essentially, the FIA will not see any loss of principal in the event that the index suffers losses. However if the index has positive returns, the FIA will capture some portion of the upside. 

Thus, FIAs can help reduce portfolio risk and shield investors from disastrous scenarios especially if they are in or near retirement. At the same time, it ensures that the portfolio is also protected against inflation, reducing the risk that a retiree will outlive their savings.

Finsum: Risks to the outlook have been steadily rising in 2024 as inflationary pressures are once again building, and there are renewed concerns about the health of the banking system. Here’s why fixed indexed annuities are an effective way that investors can diversify and de-risk their portfolios.

Last year, real estate transactions declined by 50%, while cap rates increased by 80 basis points. Many sellers were unwilling to let go of properties at lower prices, while buyers contended with a higher cost of capital and macroeconomic uncertainties. Another headwind was that many banks pulled back from lending due to balance sheet concerns, following the regional banking crisis.

This year, KKR is forecasting that real estate transactions will pick up, and there will be many opportunities for investors. Additionally, private real estate investors are well-positioned to step into the vacuum and provide financing for high-quality real estate at attractive terms. 

KKR notes some catalysts that should result in transaction volume increasing. The firm believes that real estate values are near a bottom especially as the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle and looking to cut in the coming months. 

It also notes that REITs are a leading indicator for private real estate and have already embarked on a robust rally. Further, many real estate private equity funds have ample cash and have been on the sidelines for the last year and a half. Finally, many owners and operators will be forced to sell given that many loans are due to be refinanced in the coming years. In total, $1.6 trillion of real estate debt will be maturing in the next 3 years. 

Finsum: Over the last 18 months, activity in real estate has plummeted. KKR believes that we are close to a bottom. It sees attractive opportunities for private real estate investors especially given that many loans will need to be refinanced in the coming years in addition to an improvement in macroeconomic conditions.

US Treasuries continue to move lower as hopes for a pivot in Fed policy are eroding. From the start of the year, the yield on the 10-year has climbed from 3.9% to above 4.3% to reach their highest levels since November. In total, it has retraced nearly half of the rally that began in October of last year. 

Over this period, the number of rate cuts expected in 2024 has declined from 6 to 3 as has the timing. Primarily, this is due to the economy remaining strong as evidenced by the labor market and inflation that has proven to be more entrenched than expected. All in all, the narrative has certainly changed as some now believe the Fed may actually hike rates further especially as there are indications that the steady decline in inflation has ended. 

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting also showed that committee members are concerned about the risk of inflation re-igniting if it begins to cut too soon. Overall, it remains ‘data-dependent’. However, all the recent data has undermined the case for immediate or aggressive cuts. According to Rich Familetti, CIO of US fixed income at SLC Management, the current Fed stance "is going to make it very hard for rates to fall much further from here… The pain trade is at higher rates and we will likely experience that."

Finsum: Treasuries continued their losing streak as higher interest rates have weighed on the entire fixed income complex. The market is now expecting 3 cuts in 2024 down from 6 at the start of the year.

In 2023, municipal bonds showed a recovery after a tough 2022, largely due to late-year rallies and shifts in Federal Reserve policy. However, the market has not fully rebounded, indicating ongoing opportunities in 2024. 

First, strong credit fundamentals are expected to persist, supported by substantial federal spending post-pandemic, leading to record tax receipts and rainy-day balances.

Next, strategically positioning across the yield curve offers chances to secure historically high yields, particularly in the long end, where steepening curves and higher yields prevail compared to U.S. Treasuries. Anticipated recovery in demand may see mutual fund inflows resume, especially for long-term funds and ETFs. Separately managed accounts (SMAs) are likely to remain popular among investors seeking customization and tax efficiency.

Finally, despite recent tactical investor decisions, municipal bonds continue to offer tax-free income, solid credit quality, and promising long-term returns, making them a strategic allocation option. Given current market conditions, entering the municipal bond market now may prove compelling for investors.

Finsum: Muni’s are leaving lots of options for investors on the table to tactically deploy in 2024. 

Last year, US oil production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day according to the Department of Energy. It’s a major reason why oil prices are under $80 per barrel despite an assortment of reasons for it to be higher including OPEC production cuts, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the conflict between Israel and Palestine. 

However, forecasts are showing that US production is expected to grow by a much smaller amount in 2024 due to inflationary pressures, consolidation, and a slowdown in rig activity. With a higher cost of production, less projects are viable, especially with oil prices at current levels.

So far, most of the reduction in drilling is expected to come from smaller, private producers, while larger, public producers are expected to continue with plans to increase production by an estimated 270,000 barrels per day. Yet, this is also less than last year’s increase of 900,000 barrels per day. However, forecasts indicate more robust growth in 2025 with new projects coming online. 

At the moment, US producers have the capacity to increase production in the event that prices rise more than expected and also cut if prices fall further. At the moment, the market seems to be near equilibrium as demand growth is expected to be slow in 2024 due to weakness in Europe and Asia. 

Finsum: Strong US production is one of the major reasons that oil prices are under $80 per barrel. However, production growth is expected to slow in 2024 before picking up once again in 2025.