Displaying items by tag: fixed income

In a strange quirk, millennial investors have a greater allocation to fixed income than older generations according to a recent survey from Charles Schwab. Millennials currently have 45% allocated to fixed income, while Generation X and baby boomers have 37% and 31%, respectively. Looking ahead, 51% of millennials plan to buy fixed income ETFs next year while 45% of Generation X and 40% of baby boomers plan to do so. 

Of course, this is contrary to the conventional thinking that younger investors should have greater capacity for risk given that they have a longer timeframe to ride out volatility to earn higher returns. However, this conservative positioning could be a reflection of the extraordinary events that have taken place over the last couple of decades which have likely shaped their attitudes. These include the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis in 2008, and the pandemic. 

Thus, many millennial investors are focusing more on reducing risk with their high levels of exposure to fixed income while eschewing equities. According to David Botset, the head of strategy and product at Schwab Asset Management, stocks are the ‘growth engine’ of a retirement portfolio so underexposure could have negative long-term implications. 

Finsum: Millennial investors have lived through unusually volatile markets which have impacted their thinking and led to an overallocation to fixed income. 

In its 2024 investment outlook, Morgan Stanley shared why it’s bullish on fixed income. A major reason is that it expects for inflation to continue moderating. Within fixed income, the bank likes high-quality bonds and government debt from developed markets. In terms of equities, it sees less upside given that markets have already priced in a soft landing.

According to Serena Tang, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist at Morgan Stanley Research, “Central banks will have to get the balance correct between tightening just enough and easing quickly enough. For investors, 2024 should be all about threading the needle and looking for small openings in markets that can generate positive returns.”  

The bank recommends a more cautious approach in the first half of 2024 as there are numerous headwinds including restrictive monetary policy, a conservative earnings outlook, and slower economic growth. However, it sees rate cuts starting in June of 2024 which should provide a boost to the economic outlook in the second half of 2024 due to inflation falling to the Fed’s target.

It also expects lower levels of global growth in the US, Europe, and UK while also seeing weak Chinese growth as a risk, although it believes that the country will avoid a deflationary spiral that could have negative ripple effects for the wider region. 

Finsum: Morgan Stanley shared its 2024 outlook. Overall, it’s bullish on fixed income due to expectations that inflation will continue to fall while growth will disappoint in 2024. 

Something has shifted in the market following the softer than expected October CPI report. At one point this year, a recession in 2024 seemed like the consensus trade, especially following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, stresses in the banking system, and fears that high rates would choke off growth. 

Now, the odds of a soft landing are rising. According to Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income’s chief investment strategist, many seem to be aware of the historical context of previous soft landings. He cites 2018 and the mid-1990s as examples of rate hike cycles that didn’t result in a recession.

He believes that rising rates and tighter financial conditions are only recessionary, if economic growth is dependent on borrowing. He adds that “The excesses that would typically create a recession are simply not in existence. A lot of the expansions in the past were dependent on borrowing, but this time, it is a job growth driven organic expansion.” 

In contrast to previous borrowing-driven expansions, there is much less leverage. Financial institutions remain well-capitalized, household balance sheets are in solid standing, lending standards remain high, and there are no asset bubbles in sight. Adding to this is that the economy continues to add jobs while consumer spending remains firm on a real basis. 

Finsum: PGIM’s Robert Tipp believes that a soft landing outcome is likely. He points to the lack of leverage, historical instances, and firmness of the labor market and consumer spending as primary factors.

The October CPI report may have marked an inflection point for the Fed’s hiking cycle which is leading to inflows into fixed income ETFs. According to Andres Rincon, the Head of ETF Sales and Strategy at TD Securities, this is being driven by advisors, retail investors, and institutions with fixed income accounting for two-thirds of total ETF flows. 

The short-end accounts for 40% of these flows as investors look to take advantage of high rates with increased demand for Treasuries, HISA ETFs, money market ETFs, and ultra short-term bond ETFs. However, the very long-end is also attracting interest to provide a hedge against a decline in rates and the overall market. Rincon also noted a surge in demand for fixed income products from TD’s direct indexing channel which had been absent during the period of zero percent rates. 

Another trend that is supportive of fixed income ETF inflows is the conversion of popular mutual funds into ETF offerings. This is due to demand from institutions and advisors and advantages to the ETF structure in terms of liquidity and transparency. This is leading to more growth for the total ETF market as well. 

Finsum: Andres Rincon, the Head of ETF Sales and Strategy at TD Securities, notes that fixed income ETFs are seeing significant inflows due to a variety of reasons.

Virtus Investment Partners recently launched a new actively managed fixed income ETF that primarily invests in high-quality, short-duration debt from multiple sectors. The Virtus Newfleet Short Duration Core Plus Bond ETF (SDCP) intends to provide high levels of returns and income while limiting variance in net asset value. 

SDCP will also selectively invest in securities that are below investment-grade if yields are sufficiently attractive. It aims to achieve these goals through prudent risk management, a disciplined investment process, and finding opportunities in undervalued parts of the market. The fund will target securities with a duration between 1 and 3 years and will charge 35 basis points. 

SDCP’s subadvisors is Newfleet Asset Management which has considerable expertise in all parts of the fixed income market including newer, more niche, and out-of-favor sectors. It believes active sector rotation and risk management are keys to portfolio construction. 

Overall, SDCP’s launch is a continuation of a major theme in 2023 - the growth of fixed income ETFs. According to Todd Rosenbluth, the head of Research at VettaFI, fixed income ETFs comprise only 20% of the total market but account for 40% of inflows so far this year. 

Finsum: Virtus is launching a new short-duration focused active fixed income ETF with Newfleet Asset Management as an advisor.