Displaying items by tag: equity

Seems volatility hunkered down with a good book in front of a roaring fireplace and felt well at home this month.

During October, implied volatility was unfailingly hovered well above average. In fact, it hit its highest monthly average since June 2020, according to gia.com. Down to the nitty gritty: half of the days parked beyond the first two weeks of the months experienced swings in the equity market of at least +/- 2%. Joining the party was an Oct. 13 intra-day move exceeding 5%. That unfolded before the gales of an advance in the midst of the months’ second half.

As for next year? Um, don’t ask. According to msn.com, with investors updating their economic outcome probabilities, UBS Global Wealth Management recently said investors should figure on even more volatility in the 2023 S&P.

"Large month-to-month swings could continue well into next year," said UBS.

In all probability, wide monthly S&P 500 swings will stretch in 2023. Why? Investors will watch moves by the Fed and economic data to ascertain the chances of a soft landing or recession in the U.S.

"[Expect] more volatility and large market swings exacerbated by positioning as investors update their economic outcome probabilities in reaction to each new data point and Fed utterance," Jason Draho, head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note.

Drop in the, um, bucket list? The performance of a number of model portfolios that leverage the bucket strategy recently was put under a microscope by Christine Benz, Morningstar’s director of personal finance, according to smartasset.com. While the year’s been unkind to the portfolios given their bottom line’s have taken a hit, nevertheless, they’ve outperformed the traditional 60/40 portfolio. That, of course, is an asset allocation retirees commonly use. Further, they’ve outpaced the S&P 500. Through the first six months of 2022, it was down – and by a considerable margin.

The strategy’s a way to spread your assets across different groups of investments that will be tapped at various points.

“[T]he Bucket system has delivered by keeping the faucets open,” Benz wrote. “Retirees using a Bucket system can draw upon their cash reserves without having to disrupt their long-term investments, which have likely experienced price declines so far this year.”

So, is the bucket list holding up in light of the difficulties of the year’s market performance? That would be a resound yes, as it does what it was designed to, according to Morningstar.com.

"True, all of my Model Bucket Portfolios have lost money this year -- and my guess is that most retiree bucketers are seeing red ink for the whole of their portfolios, too,” said Benz.  (As of late June, a 60% U.S. equity/40% bond portfolio would be down about 16% for the year to date.)

But the Bucket system has delivered by keeping the faucets open: Retirees using a Bucket system can draw upon their cash reserves without having to disrupt their long-term investments, which have likely experienced price declines so far this year.”

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Whether the US’ current bout of inflation is caused by transitory supply-side factors, or trillions of dollars poured into the economy by policymakers, is irrelevant because investors are now tasked with finding a way through the stock market jitters. As inflation rises it eats at yields and the value of fixed coupons falls. To avoid the pitfalls of rising prices look to dividend stocks, whose yields are pushed higher by inflation. Of course not all dividend stocks are created equal and some will outperform in an inflationary environment. The best income stocks are in the financial sector because they benefit from rising interest rates, as their interest rate margins expand in such environments. Energy is next, at least currently. Higher demand boosts prices of oil and gas, which benefits energy sector investors as it is one of the highest dividend payers. These sectors are the most likely to boost their dividends in the rising price environment.

FINSUM: Dividend stocks have no doubt outperformed just about every segment of the bond market, and expanding your dividend holdings may be a good idea as inflation comes in at 20-year highs. 

September saw the Vix creep to a 4-month high as the S&P 500 blew off 4.8% of its value. Most investors were hoping for a bounce-back month in October, chalking up September’s poor performance to a checkered history for the opening of autumn. However, they are likely to be remiss as volatility indexes are still climbing. The pullback in September was the largest since March of 2020, when the pandemic began.BofA said that while October is generally a well-performing month when it trails a struggling September, October can drag as well. Debt ceiling negotiations, oil price spikes, and Fed tapering are just a few of the onslaught of headlines which are giving the market fits.

FINSUM: While volatility has yet to hit the peaks of September it is already consistently above its 200-day moving average, which could be a sign of even more volatility to come.