Goldman Sachs projects that the stock market could see a 15% rise by year-end if mega-cap tech stocks continue their strong performance. The bank argues that tech stocks are not currently in a bubble, as investors are focused on companies with profitable growth rather than speculative ones. 

Goldman’s David Kostin notes that while long-term growth expectations for the S&P 500 are slightly above average, they remain well below levels seen during previous market bubbles. Despite concerns about the high concentration in a few tech giants, Goldman believes this is justified given their rapid growth compared to other S&P 500 companies. 

The valuation spread between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes does not suggest bubble conditions, staying below historical extremes. 

Finsum: We would look into more traditional measures like price to earning ratios if we are concerned about a bubble forming, rather than just long run growth.