Displaying items by tag: emerging markets

Recent movements in some of the most sensitive global assets suggest that the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates may have come too soon or might not be sustainable. Since the Fed’s rate cut in mid-September, emerging-market assets have acted as if borrowing costs will stay elevated, leaving them vulnerable. 

New risks, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, have overshadowed any benefits from the rate cut, with concerns over China’s lackluster stimulus and the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency adding to market uncertainty. 

Investors in emerging markets are now positioning themselves defensively in the face of a stronger U.S. economy and a weakening Chinese one. While there was initial optimism, strong U.S. data and political tensions have reignited fears of persistent inflation. 

Finsum: This could have traders reassessing their strategies, unsure of how much more support they can expect from central banks.

Emerging-market stocks fell as new signs of economic trouble in China emerged, with trading volumes low due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 0.3%, driven by declines in Chinese giants like Alibaba and Tencent, despite gains in Taiwan Semiconductor. 

The drop followed data showing that Chinese factory activity contracted for the fourth month in a row, casting doubt on the country’s growth prospects for the year. Meanwhile, currency markets are bracing for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, with upcoming economic reports likely to shape the outlook. 

The Brazilian real weakened despite central bank interventions, amid rising fiscal concerns and political uncertainty in Latin America. In a related move, Hungary issued yen-denominated bonds, nearing its cap on foreign currency debt issuance.

Finsum: It will be critical to monitor exchange rates as the US begins letting rates fall, this could have a big impact on Ems

In 2024, emerging-market investments face a challenging environment due to high interest rates, elections, and strict regulations. However, optimism exists for both fixed income and equities. 

Higher-rated countries with strong external credit positions are less affected by rising rates, and better policymaking enhances stability. China's economic impact on commodity prices remains significant, while India's growth prospects are strong. 

South Korea's undervalued market may benefit from policy changes, and exposure to semiconductors and AI in regions like Korea, Taiwan, and China offers additional opportunities.

Finsum: Also keep a role on political stabilization which seems to be trending positive for a number of EMs.

Pakistan and Kenya have made some of the quickest economic turnarounds in recent memory for emerging market economies and as a result investors are buying up their bonds rapidly. This is part of a larger trend as previously neglected debts from countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Kenya are now appealing again, driven by interest rate hikes and currency market liberalizations.

With falling interest rates in mature markets, these relatively higher yields are enticing. In Turkey, high interest rates have drawn investors back, and Egypt's debt has seen significant foreign investment, supported by currency devaluation and free-floating exchange rates. Investors view these reforms as promising, despite risks such as volatility and potential capital controls.

Potentially prolonged high US interest rates could challenge these markets, particularly for countries with high debt interest payments. Nonetheless, some investors still find local currency bonds more attractive than dollar-denominated debt, seeing the current situation as the beginning of more gains.

Finsum: It might not be too late to chase the yield curve in some of these emerging market economies. 

The rise in bond yields presents an opportunity for fixed income investors to find value according to Penter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Mellon Global Credit Fund. He notes that bond yields are close to their highest levels since the financial crisis and that conditions have been improving for investment-grade debt. 

Due to these developments, he anticipates healthy returns for global and regional investment-grade credit. A key factor is borrowers have strong balance sheets with lower leverage than before the pandemic. In fact, Bentley believes that certain segments within fixed income could perform better than equities. He identifies ‘fallen angels’, short-duration high yield bonds, and emerging market corporate debt as having the most potential for outperformance this year. 

Some uncertainties that could cloud this outlook including the election in November, the Fed’s ability to cut rates, and a tense geopolitical situation with Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East.  Thus, investors should expect volatility to persist all year which means more opportunities for active managers to outperform. 

Another place that fixed income investors can find value is with global credit. Historically, global credit has delivered better returns when markets are emerging from a downturn. In terms of global credit, Bentley sees opportunities in European credit markets and emerging market debt.   

Finsum: Peter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Global Credit Fund, believes that investors can find value in fixed income. He sees the potential for strong returns in global credit, short-duration high yield debt, and ‘fallen angels’.