Displaying items by tag: biden
New polls emerging show an interesting picture of how the November election may go. While Biden remains about 5 points ahead of Trump in national polls, what is more interesting is that he holds a 5-point lead in three of the most integral swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That is critical because those are the states that trump won in 2016 in order to beat Hillary. If he doesn’t win those states this time around, the odds are very long for a Trump victory.
FINSUM: The state of the economy and the long lockdown seem to be weighing on Trump right now, but there is still six months to go, which is more than enough time for a big swing (in either direction).
The “mini Super Tuesday” results are in from yesterday’s six primaries, and Joe Biden has taken an even more commanding lead. The biggest prize he won yesterday was Michigan, giving him a very strong lead heading into next week’s primaries, which includes Florida. He is almost untouchable at the point, but a win in Florida—which is forecasted—would make his advantage insurmountable.
FINSUM: Two thoughts here. Firstly, Sanders is the most successful non-winning candidate ever. He changed the party and galvanized the center, which ultimately led to his losing, but transformed the vision of the party. Secondly, Biden is more dangerous for Trump. He has the right middle-of-the-road policies and demeanor to attract moderates and those whose eyes might be wavering from the president.
How about some stocks with good income that should stand up well to the coronavirus scare? Sounds good. Well, take a look at the most obvious sector for such: healthcare. Healthcare stocks have great dividend yields right now and should be impervious to coronavirus by definition. Plus, they have a tailwind that only really arrived yesterday—a resurgent Joe Biden, who does not want to tear up the status quo of US healthcare. A couple good funds for this are the SPDR XLV or HGHAX.
FINSUM: This seems like a very good call—good income and a natural defensiveness to the virus scare. Plus, Biden’s resurgence should be positive.
Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, the ongoing “reporting issue” with the Iowa Caucus is highly embarrassing. Democrats were unable to report a winner after voting closed last night because of irregularities in reporting. The party’s new app, which voters and reporting areas used, did not fail. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies and reporting issues (e.g. phone lines were down). Candidates were unable to comment on their success or failure, save Pete Buttigieg, who declared victory.
FINSUM: Trump jumped all over this, as one would expect. It does not look good for Democratic competence to have a big screw-up on their first trip out of the gate in 2020.
If you are hoping a middle of the road Democrat wins the party’s bid, then yesterday’s poll is an alarming one. In a new CNN poll, Bernie Sanders completed a 9-point swing to overtake Joe Biden by 3% in polls of Democratic voters. He rose a full 7 points to 27% support versus Biden’s fall of 2% to 24% overall. The first votes for the candidacy start on February 3rd in Iowa and February 11th in New Hampshire.
FINSUM: Purely looking at this from a political perspective, we think it is hard to say which candidate has the best odds of beating Trump. On the one hand, Biden can certainly capture more of the centrist voters, but on the other, Bernie is a much more realistic embodiment of the current Democrat party and could galvanize its identity to voters.