Displaying items by tag: bear market

The latest data release from BlackRock’s iShares division revealed troubling news about the state of Bond Market ETFs: inflows slumped to just $14 billion which is the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. It's the taxable corporate bond market that's fairing the worst as investors are pouring less dollars into traditional corporate debt and junk bonds, amid fears of inflation eating yields. Instead, investors are turning to shorter duration and inflation protected bonds. Nearly 40% of fixed income flows went into inflation linked bonds, an almost unprecedented number. Investors have also started to put inflows into Chinese bonds as the international sovereign debt market was a relative winner among bond ETFs. China’s yield is the biggest draw to international investors as they see the debt as relatively secure and paying more than developed countries.

FINSUM: Expect corporate bond outflows to continue until the TIPS spread starts turning towards the Feds 2% inflation objective.

November was full of volatility, and that's more than leaked into December, but Goldman warned investors about buying the dip hoping for a post Christmas rally. The biggest two threats Goldman sees are ongoing, the new omicron Covid 19 variant and the newfound inflation hawkishness by the Fed. The bear wave has hit a variety of asset classes whether its tech or bitcoin, and their risk appetite is low. The street is mixed however as some indications of omicron is it won’t be severe and Fed actions haven’t taken hold just yet. The VIX is still above its short and longer run moving averages which should keep investors cautious.

FINSUM: There is really no reason to move drastically right now, the Fed will be more transparent in the next couple of months.

ESG has been the hottest investment subculture of the last 5 years, and greenwashing was largely concerned with investors being skittish, but greenwashing has now metastasized and regulators are watching. Deutsche Bank AG’s asset management team DWS rode the wave as hard as any investment firm but now the U.S. The Department of Justice, the SEC, and Germany's BaFin are looking into the company's ESG claims. Whistleblowers have spurred the investigation and now Asoka Woehermann, the leader of the operation, is coming under pressure. This marks a new and more uncertain future for ESG, one that could have regulators holding a tighter leash over financial firms moving forward. DWS has reiterated they have done nothing wrong or steered investors in the wrong direction.

FINSUM: This is a major test for financial firms and forward-looking tools could be a difference-maker to keep regulators from targeting the next financial firm.

In their latest strategy release Morgan Stanley is pulling no punches about its projections for 2022, warning investors to unload and underweight U.S. Stocks, Bonds and Treasuries. They see tightening monetary policy, high inflation, and higher valuations all scaring them from a more bullish U.S. stance. They see the S&P dropping to almost 6% below its current levels. In order to find the gains they need they suggest investors look to Euro-area and Japanese companies, where they are bullish on equity prices. They also see commodities providing some portfolio relief. However, Morgan Stanley’s economists aren’t predicting a rate rise until 2023, and they see the Fed being more dovish than the broader market expects.

FINSUM: Conflicting messages inside Morgan Stanley. If Monetary Policy doesn’t over tighten then don’t expect a sluggish year in the U.S.

Treasury yields have been on the climb as of late. The 10 year Treasury is up as much as 30 basis points since mid September, and that climb has many dividend investors worried as to the value of the stocks they hold. Most income investors see rising yields challenging the value of income stocks, causing them to fall, but in the 15 times in the post war era that the 10-year has risen 1.5% from its low, the S&P grew by 12% annualized in this stretch. What this current Treasury climb has in common with its predecessors is inflation. The latest PCE posted a 30-year record, and that is being priced into Treasuries, which is eroding the traditional income stream. With realized gains in Treasuries lower than the nominal yields driving headlines, dividend investors might not need to be worried about stock valuations sinking. 

FINSUM: If yields were being driven by growth factors, we might see the more traditional relationship between interest rates and asset prices, but an inflation-driven cycle might not push investors away from dividend equities.