The breakout in long-term yields has resulted in bonds turning negative on the year. Bonds could rally if the Fed does cut rates next year as anticipated by the market, but the rally would most likely be contained in the short-duration securities according to Blackrock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg. This would be a change from the long end as typically the best place to hedge against equities.

Rosenberg believes that the combination of higher Treasury supply and quantitative tightening will lead to upward pressure on long-term rates. The yield curve has become historically inverted which means that bonds would rally the hardest at the short end in the event of a rate cut. However, many passive benchmarks are overweight toward intermediate and long-term durations.

It’s also clear that there is a different relationship between stocks and bonds in a high rate, high inflation world. This has meant that fixed income is less effective as a source of diversification. However, this is most true with long-duration bonds. Short-duration bonds continue to work to diversify against equities especially as the Fed is likely to remain vigilant against longer-term inflation expectations rising even if it shifts on policy. 

Finsum: Blackrock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg details his outlook for active fixed income. He favors short-duration bonds given elevated volatility and the inverted yield curve.