In a strategy note, Scott Welch, the CIO of Model Portfolios at WisdomTree Investments, discusses how markets are unusually calm right now but from a seasonal perspective, investors should get ready for a surge in volatility.
Currently, markets are at their ‘calmest’ since prior to the pandemic, this is evident through the Vix or credit spreads although bond market volatility is elevated. Historically, volatility does tend to increase between September and November especially as trading volumes increase, and people become more mindful of risks.
According to WisdomTree, markets are currently not accounting for a slowing economy, hawkish Fed, and geopolitical tensions. The firm recommends that investors prioritize quality in their portfolios by prioritizing cash flow, strong balance sheets, and operational efficiency as these companies are best suited to handle a downturn in economic conditions.
The second consideration is sufficient diversification at the asset class and risk levels. This is a necessary antidote as many investors are tempted to veer away from their plan during these periods of volatility. With proper diversification and rebalancing, these periods can be used advantageously.
Finally, it recommends investing in less followed parts of the market like managed futures, floating rate Treasuries, or commodities. These alternative asset classes can also provide additional diversification while outperforming in volatile markets.
Finsum: WisdomTree shares some thoughts on the current state of the market, and why investors should prepare for a surge in volatility.