In an article for AdvisorPerspectives, Edward Perks of Franklin Templeton shared his reasoning for why fixed income should outperform equities in the near term.
First, he sees that inflation is trending lower, but there still needs to be more progress before the Fed would actually start cutting rates. Further, he acknowledges recent stress in the banking system but doesn’t see it spreading to other sectors and becoming a more significant issue which would force rate cuts.
This should lead to a positive scenario for fixed income with longer-term rates bending lower, short-term rates plateauing, and inflation gently moving lower. However, he does believe that the economy will keep slowing so that corporate earnings will soften into the second-half of the year and 2024.
Due to these factors, he recommends a 60/40 allocation with a larger tilt for fixed income over equity. It’s also possible that the allocation could change even more if the economy stumbles into a recession. The firm is particularly bullish on investment grade credit as it offers compelling value with strong upside especially if Franklin Templeton’s base case economic scenario plays out.
Finsum: Franklin Templeton is quite constructive on fixed income but less so for equities. Here’s why it’s recommending a 60/40 allocation tilted towards bonds.