(New York)

Anyone on the lookout for signs of a correction might want to pay attention to this. New data shows that US investors are avoiding US stock funds. Of the $4.1 bn poured into mutual funds and ETFs in the week ending December 27th, around 70% of the money flowed overseas. The trend is nothing new though, as US stock funds saw their third straight year of net outflows despite the market rising strongly. Taxable bond funds and international stock funds have seen 56 straight weeks of inflows.

FINSUM: We don’t think this is a warning sign of anything other than good times to come. US investors tend to put more money overseas when they are bullish, so this is not a negative sign.

(New York)

The fiduciary rule is in an odd sort of limbo. Despite being seemingly dead from a rule-making point-of-view, it is still very much alive as a practical rule that needs to be abided by even if it is not in full force. But is still surprising to learn, especially given all the hype over the rule’s possible dissolution, that 42% of all advisor-held US assets under management are now subject to the fiduciary rule. That figure is up from what would have been 24% in 2005 and 33% in 2010. The growth has come from the large number of firms seeking to grow their fee-based managed account programs.

FINSUM: That is a quite a high proportion of assets. We hope the DOL rule will not be implemented and the SEC will come up with a more effectual version.

(New York)

The Broker Protocol just suffered another loss. Despite Merrill Lynch deciding to stay in the agreement, the loss of Morgan Stanley and UBS appeared too much of an enticement, and Citigroup has now departed. Citigroup has about 1,000 advisors across the country, and the bank says that leaving the Protocol will allow them to “continue to invest in our growing team of award-winning financial advisers”.

FINSUM: So MS, UBS, and Citigroup are now gone, with ML and Raymond James saying they will stay in. One side is eventually going to win. We think the leavers will eventually cause MS and RJ to leave.

(New York)

With stocks riding so high and anxiety building about a potential downturn, espousing and building a robust bond strategy is going to be more important than ever. With that in mind Barron’s has put out four bond funds picks for 2018. The picks are the Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index, the Artisan High Income fund, the Prudential Short Duration Muni High Income, and the Dodge & Cox Global Bond.

FINSUM: The Vanguard fund really caught our eye. It has an expense ratio of 0.19% versus an average of 0.8% for its peers, and has more than $190 bn under management, with a lot of expertise managing it.

(Chicago)

Most people talk about retail investors’ effect on the stock market, especially when things get bad. But what is much less understood is their role in the bond market. Individual bond buyers are growing force in the bond market and are one of the major factors that has kept bond yields low. The proportion of the US population 65 or older has grown 40% since 2000 and is set to keep growing. Retirees typically buy more bonds as they near retirement, which should keep downward pressure on yields.

FINSUM: So admittedly this WSJ article we discuss absolutely supports the arguments we have been making to our readers for many months. We are not bearish on bonds, despite a lot of comments to the contrary, because there is such a big demographically-driven source of demand.