(Washington)

President Trump faced nothing short of public and political outrage in the US yesterday, after he essentially sided with Russia’s view of the 2016 election meddling scandal. When asked about Russia’ alleged meddling in the election, Trump insinuated that he believed Putin’s side of the story more than that of US intelligence agencies (though he did not say this outright). That sparked widespread condemnation from political foes and allies alike.

FINSUM: Whatever you think of Trump’s comments, most might agree that these are some of his most provocative and risky comments yet. The reason being that appearing to “side” with Russia might undermine some of his own nationalist voter base.

(New York)

US financial shares might be in for a quick ride higher. Bank of America’s earnings came in 33% higher than last year, leading to a blowout for the sector. The news followed strong earnings from JP Morgan and Citi. BAML’s shares rose over 4% on the news with one analyst commenting that the numbers were “almost all you could have hoped for”. Rising interest rates were a key factor in the increasing earnings, as banks earned more from net interest margins.

FINSUM: These are great numbers, but they may only be temporary. Consumers have not yet started demanding higher interest payments on savings, but once they do (and we think they will), then banks’ net interest margins will start shrinking again.

(Washington)

Something very odd has been going on in markets for the last few weeks—investors are completely tuning out politics. The political situation both domestically and internationally has grown steadily worse in recent weeks. The US has a growing trade war with China, Brexit is a complete mess, Trump is meddling with allies etc., yet markets continue to move higher. Even emerging markets have rallied.

FINSUM: On top of politics, recession fears are also growing. Accordingly, it is slightly concerning markets are rising. Markets have learned to not take Trump’s comments too seriously, but that lack of sensitivity might be serving investors poorly right now. The Wall Street Journal says it best: “Markets are notoriously bad at pricing changes in the political weather until they are forced to”.

(New York)

The market is currently facing a large number of headwinds: higher rates, a flattening yield curve, a growing trade war, and a high degree of international political tension. Yet, according to Barron’s, the path of least resistance for the S&P 500 may be higher. The reason why? Despite all the hovering the market has done this year, one big thing has fundamentally changed very recently—market breadth is increasing. In other words, the number of stocks which are advancing versus declining is improving. When the market does so, it is often a sign of better things to come.

FINSUM: We do take increasing breadth as a positive sign, as it reflects that investors across all sectors are feeling better and not just a handful hiding out in a few places.

(New York)

When big US banks are worried about lending to the commercial property market, one knows things must be getting bad. Big bank executives say they are unwilling to sign off on a number of deals in commercial real estate as the sector looks overheated. For instance, the CFO of JP Morgan Chase said spreads, a proxy for returns, were “under a lot of pressure”. Big banks like JPM and Wells Fargo have been shrinking their exposure to the sector for some time. Market participants say competition in the space is so high that deals no longer provide good risk-return metrics.

FINSUM: It sounds like commercial real estate is maybe just past its peak and headed for a downturn. All of which appears in direct contrast to the residential property market.