(New York)

Ever since the Republican tax package was passed, along with its limitation on SALT deductions, there has been a lot of speculation that there might be a mass exodus of wealthy northeasterners to no-tax states like Florida. However, in practice that does not seem to be materializing. Financial advisors in New York and California say many clients are considering relocating, but in reality few are. A quote from Bloomberg explains why: “Wealth managers and tax lawyers say many of their (New York) clients are staying put after hearing about the scrupulous records they would have to keep to show they’ve really uprooted their lives and severed ties with their former states … and that it’s not as easy as just spending a few more days a month in a Florida vacation home”.

FINSUM: It is a very big lifestyle change to uproot one’s life in your 50s and 60s and move thousands of miles away purely for financial reasons. We suspect that there will only be a trickle here rather than a flood.

(Johannesburg)

Emerging markets had a very poor first half to the year, with equities entering into a bear market and bonds suffering losses too. However, in recent weeks, bonds have started to rally, which has made some hopeful a big rebound is on the way. That said, American fund managers are not rushing back in, saying that the bonds are very risky. In fact, a survey by Citi found that even though prices are rising, top EM bond fund managers are getting bearish and are setting aside more cash in anticipation of losses.

FINSUM: Dollar-denominated bonds from the likes of Argentina, Egypt, and Brazil have their appeal—high yields, but they do hold a lot of risk, especially in a period of rising rates and a rising Dollar.

(New York)

If you have been following the situation closely, you will have noticed that the Fed is pretty uniformly dismissing the risks of our almost-inverted yield curve. The central bank thinks that central bank bond buying has held long-term yields to artificially low levels, and accordingly, they think the only 30 bp spread between two- and ten-year Treasuries is of no concern. The problem is that this is almost the exact same logic the Fed used when the yield curve inverted in 2006. Then they said it was a global savings glut keeping long-term yields pinned. Soon after, the US went in to recession and the Crisis erupted.

FINSUM: A big part of the problem here is not just that higher rates could lead to a recession, but that low long-term yields drive investors into riskier investments (just as they did pre-Crisis), so the flat yield curve is actually very worrying. The Fed is sleeping walking into a bear trap.

(New York)

There is a new big asset class getting very popular on Wall Street. You may think it is some new esoteric structured credit or volatility product. But guess what, it is just about the oldest product in the world—business lending, or “direct-lending” as it is being called. It has been increasingly apparent on the fringes that big Wall Street players, like Goldman Sachs, have recently taken an interest in direct lending. Now, the whole Street is getting in on the action. Major private shops like KKR and others have started direct lending funds, and the area has returned handsomely, up over 20% this year. The idea of the funds is to lend to businesses and whose credit excludes them from the usual channels.

FINSUM: These funds seem likely to do well until a recession or period of deleveraging occurs, at which time they are likely to see high levels of defaults.

(New York)

There have been a lot articles and discussion lately about the new cap on so-called SALT deductions (state and local taxes). Much of this conversation has been centered around wealthy New Yorkers and others in the northeast considering moving their primary residences to low-tax states like Florida. Well, if anecdotal evidence is worth anything, the conversation is just that, talk. The reason why? New York’s onerous tax collection department dives into credit card records, confirms doctor’s appointments, and does door to door checks to make sure you have really uprooted your life and left the state. Evidently, after speaking with the financial advisors and lawyers, many residents have decided to forget about moving, saying it is just too big a disruption.

FINSUM: This makes sense given how rigorous the tax inspectors are. Further, New York is probably going to find a way around this lack of SALT very soon, so it is not worth uprooting.