Displaying items by tag: yields

(New York)

Investors be warned, JP Morgan has just issued an ominous warning—that ten-year Treasury yields will jump to 5%. JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has long argued that yields would rise to 4%, but now says the figure might be 5%. “I think rates should be 4 percent today … You better be prepared to deal with rates 5 percent or higher - it’s a higher probability than most people think”. Dimon sees a recession on the horizon, but he does admit there may be time for the bull market to continue, saying it could “actually go for 2 or 3 more years”.

FINSUM: Ten-year yields are currently having trouble sustaining 3%, so it is hard to imagine them going to 5% any time soon. Still we thought the warning was worth sharing.

(New York)

They had been paused for a couple of months, but in the last week, things started to change. Treasury yields once again broke above the 3% barrier last Wednesday. The number is a psychologically important and has proved a stalwart level for the yield to breakthrough. It did so earlier this year, before quickly falling back into the 2.8% range. Yields seemed to be pushed higher by a sharp rise in Japanese bonds yields following action by the BOJ.

FINSUM: Treasury yields are hard to handle right now. On the one hand, the economy looks fantastic, which should send them higher, but at the same time the Fed looks hawkish and the risk of recession seems to be rising, which would keep things in check.

(New York)

Dividend stocks usually don’t fare as well in periods of rising yields, but guess what, yields have been largely paused for some time. Further, investors may be wise to stay away from tech for awhile as it seems the sector is going through a reckoning. Well, interestingly, the famed Dividend Aristocrats—a group of companies who have raised their dividends for 25 straight years—has just one tech company in it, ADP, the payroll processor, so it is a very good way to earn income and hideout from the tech turmoil. Furthermore, and somewhat surprisingly, the average P/E ratio of the group is 18.1x, below the S&P 500’s average of 18.8x.

FINSUM: This seems like a nice stable group to buy into, and the ever rising dividends provide a nice cushion for any potential losses.

(New York)

Are you looking for high yielding stocks that also appear to have good upside? Look no further than this handful of picks. Market Watch has picked a group of stocks with solid dividends that are also seeing dividend hikes. This is a key feature to have not only as a way of offsetting any losses from rising rates, but also a means to drive price appreciation. All the names on the list have dividends of over 4% and have seen recent dividend hikes of 10%+. These stocks include CareTrust REIT, Six Flags Entertainment, AbbVie Inc, and Janus Henderson Group.

FINSUM: Dividend hikes have been rarer lately than one would expect given the good spell of earnings we have had. The reason why seems to be the prevalence of buybacks. All of which makes these shares unique.

(Washington)

In what could come as very welcome news for investors across all asset classes, Fed Chief Powell has indicated that the Fed may take a break from hikes for a while. The question is when this pause in hikes will occur, and the Fed is debating this internally. The central is expected to introduce the words “for now” in regards to its plan for near-term hikes, a new phrase that signals conditionality. According to a former Fed economist, “Given that there’s no visible inflation threat -- not in the data and not in the FOMC forecasts -- it makes sense to inject conditionality on future moves”.

FINSUM: We hate analyzing Fed speak, but a pause in hikes seems like a good idea to us. With inflation low, there is no reason for the Fed to forcefully invert the yield curve and cause a recession.