Displaying items by tag: fed

In its midyear outlook for the fixed income market, UBS struck a bullish tone on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) but sees most of the fixed income market staying within the range from the first half of the year.

It believes the Fed will keep hiking rates until a terminal rate of 6% given the resilience of the economy. It ascribes the recent weakness in fixed income as a result of the market calibrating to this new reality rather than a recession in the second-half of the year.

Therefore, the market consensus that 2023 would be the year of fixed income has proven to be incorrect. Until the Fed begins cutting rates, fixed income markets face a significant headwind especially shorter-duration notes. Still, UBS remains cautious that as savings get depleted, higher rates could start to eat into consumer spending and other forms of economic activity. 

Given this challenging environment, UBS recommends MBS given the underlying strength of the housing market which has remained stable due to low supply and demand driven by demographics despite substantially higher mortgage rates. 

Finsum: UBS shared its midyear outlook for the fixed income market. It shared its economic outlook and why it’s bullish on MBS.

Charles Schwab shared its midyear outlook for fixed income. It notes that the asset class has been unusually volatile despite not changing much in terms of fundamentals and monetary policy.  

In the second-half of the year, Schwab sees Treasuries gradually strengthening, particularly on the short-end of the curve. So far, longer-term Treasuries have started to outperform, while shorter-term notes have weakened due to the Fed’s continued hikes. 

However, the firm sees strength across the board in response to slowing inflation and the end of the Fed’s rate hikes due to a weakening global economy. While it anticipates a pause in Fed policy imminently, it believes that the next rate cut cycle will also quickly begin as rates at these levels are quite restrictive especially in an environment of lower inflation.

Further, Schwab believes that longer-term trends are also supportive of fixed income given that fiscal policy will be contractionary, the manufacturing sector is in a recession, wage growth is slowing, and key drivers of inflation such as food, used cars, and energy have also normalized. Loosening Fed policy and falling inflation will be strong tailwinds for fixed income. 

Finsum: Charles Schwab shared its second-half outlook for fixed income. Overall, the firm is bullish and believes that underlying trends of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and inflation are supportive.

In an article for SeekingAlpha, Principal Financial Group previews the third-quarter and lays out the opportunities and risks it sees in fixed income. Overall, the firm expects the asset class to have a modest tailwind given its expectations for a recession by the end of the year.

As evidence, Principal Financial cites the unprecedented tightening over the last 16 months, slowing economies all over the world, tightening credit standards, and the inverted yield curve. It believes that the next 2 hikes will be the Fed's last in this hiking cycle. 

However, the firm doesn’t believe the central bank will be successful in engineering a ‘soft landing’ despite this increasingly becoming the consensus position over the last couple of months. Instead, the firm anticipates a final lurch higher in yields with the breakout ultimately being rejected.

Amid this period of volatility and uncertainty, the firm believes that active funds are best positioned to take advantage of market conditions, and it sees the most upside in high-yield fixed income given that the firm’s base case is for a mild recession. 

Finsum: In Q3, Principal Financial Group sees upside for fixed income due to a softening economy, and it sees the most value in high-yield.

In an article for MarketWatch, Jamie Chisholm discusses whether stocks can still rally despite the recent surge in bond yields following a spate of positive economic data. Fixed income enjoyed strong performance for most of the first-half of the year, however the asset class gave up a portion of these gains in June as it became clear that the Fed was not done hiking rates given resilience in inflation data and the jobs market.

However, Chisholm warns that as yields get above these levels, they have a tendency to become a headwind for equities. He cites Mark Newton, the chief technical strategist at Fundstrat, who believes that bonds are due for a bout of strength. He believes this pullback in yields will fuel the next leg higher in equities. 

Newton believes that yields will find resistance at these levels and sees more risk of a breakdown in yields rather than a sustained breakout to new highs. He also believes the market is going in the wrong direction in terms of over-rating the Fed’s hawkishness in response to recent data. As evidence, he cites trader positioning which shows that the bulk of traders are betting on more rate hikes into year-end. 

Finsum: Bond yields are now trading at their 52-week highs following a series of better than expected economic data. Can equities still rally with yields at these levels?

In a piece for the ETF Database, Todd Rosenbluth examines whether the strong performance of fixed income ETFs will continue in the second-half of the year. In total, the asset class had $200 billion of inflows which represented 49% of all inflows despite fixed income ETFs only accounting for 19% of total assets. 

Given the uncertainty around the economy and monetary policy, it shows that investors are looking to take advantage of higher yields as well as a structural shift towards the asset class. Both stocks and bonds have posted positive returns following a down year in 2022. 

This is despite a headwind from the Fed’s rate hikes which look likely to continue into year-end following a recent spate of positive economic data. Due to this, yields on Treasuries have exceeded their March highs. So far, the strength in the bond market has been contained to the long-end especially following the recent inverting of the curve following a string of better than expected employment data. 

Within the asset class, active fixed income ETFs saw $8 billion of inflows. Active fixed income ETFs have a better track record of outperforming their benchmark due to the ability to buy durations and assets that are unavailable to passive fixed income funds. While only 26% of active equity funds outperformed the S&P 500, 48% of active fixed income funds outperformed their benchmark in 2022.

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs saw a surge of inflows in the first-half of the year due to attractive yields. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in the second-half of the year given the economy and Fed.