Displaying items by tag: fed

In an article for USNews, Tony Dong covered how fixed income funds can help investors reduce volatility in their portfolios while producing a steady income. These funds offer the benefits of bond ownership without the costs and complexity. And, it’s especially the case for fixed income classes where markets are less liquid, opaque, and hard to access such as municipal debt and corporate bonds.

These funds also offer benefits in terms of diversification that simply are not possible to replicate for non-institutional investors. The iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF is one of his picks as a top bond fund as it is extremely liquid and has very low costs at 0.03%. The fund holds over 10,000 government and high-quality corporate debt, while it pays a yield of 4.2%. 

Another option is the Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund which is an actively managed bond fund. This fund offers higher returns as it tends to invest in shorter-term and lower-quality debt. It also has higher costs with an 0.71% annual expense ratio. 

However, active management does offer some benefits especially given recent volatility around rates given increasing levels of financial stress and expectations of a change in Fed policy. 

Finsum: Fixed income funds can help investors reduce volatility in their portfolios while generating a steady income.

After a few quarters of turbulence, economic conditions are improving for fixed income according to an article by Principal Financial Group. Essentially, the Fed is succeeding in realizing its mandate as inflation and economic growth are moderating.

This means that the Fed’s hiking cycle is most likely in its final innings. Already, we are seeing longer-term rates bending lower in anticipation which is providing support to the asset class. Although there is the potential for more short-term volatility, the softening of economic and inflation data means that the longer-term trend is higher.

The first quarter of 2023 featured mild softness in inflation and the labor market, while economic growth came in better than expected. In the second quarter, economic data is likely to soften which increases the odds of the Fed pausing. 

Additionally, the Fed’s rapid tightening over the past year has not been felt in the economy. As these effects become more evident, fixed income will outperform and reward investors willing to sit through near-term volatility. 

Finsum: Fixed income performed well in the first quarter, but economic conditions continue to develop in favor of the asset class. 

In an article for Advisor Perspectives, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree shared some strategies that can be used to generate income in the current market whether using model portfolios or ETFs.

Of course, this is a big change from the last decade when the Fed’s dovish policies meant that dividend yields on equities exceeded bond yields for the most part. This is no longer the case as the Fed is waging an aggressive hiking campaign to curb inflation even at the cost of a bump in the unemployment rate or a recession.

Thus, the Fed has already hiked rates to 5% and is forecast to hike two or three more times before the current cycle is terminated. More important, the Fed is ‘data-dependent’ and willing to change course depending on inflation and/or financial stability concerns.

This uncertainty and elevated rates mean there is a plethora of opportunities for investors to find income. For those who are comfortable with duration risk, high-yield bonds and equities are an option in addition to ETFs. For those not comfortable with duration risk, shorter-term notes and floating rate options are a good fit.

Finsum: After more than a decade of a paucity of options for income investors, the current market is offering a variety of opportunities.

Treasuries returned 3% in Q1 which is its best quarterly performance since 2020. In an article for Bloomberg, Liz McCormick and Michael Mackenzie covered some reasons for why this outperformance should continue. 

Three of the major factors are expectations of increased demand from Japan, a weeklong pause in auctions, and strong inflows from institutional and retail investors amid higher rates and wobbles for the banking system. 

The next major, market-moving event will be the March jobs report on Friday. Some analysts see the potential for weakness in Treasuries if there is a strong report regarding wages and jobs. This could undermine of the catalyst behind the Treasury rally - expectations that the Fed’s hiking cycle is nearly over. On the other hand, Treasuries could rally with a weak report.

Demand for Treasuries spiked amid the bank failures last month. As a result, yields for short-term notes tumbled to their lowest levels of the year with the 2-year Treasury yield declining by a 100 basis points. It also led to market expectations of the Fed terminal rate declining, while odds of the next Fed move being a cut rather than a hike, also jumped higher.

Finsum: Treasuries outperformed in Q1 with a major catalyst being bank failures which led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.

According to Nareit, an organization that represents the REIT industry, REITs posted their best monthly returns since January 2019 and outperformed the broader markets. The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index jumped 10.1% while the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs index rose 10.7%. Those figures compare favorably to the 7.0% gain of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market and the 6.7% gain for the Russell 1000. The strong returns came as a result of investor optimism stemming from the widely expected belief that the Federal Reserve will pivot from its rate hiking cycle as inflation slows. In addition, REIT operational performance continues to be strong. For instance, REITs reported a new all-time high of $19.9 billion in funds from operations in the third quarter of 2022 according to Nareit’s T-Tracker. During January, all property sectors had a positive performance. The top sectors include lodging/resorts with a 17.1% gain, industrials which rose 13.7%, and data centers at 13.2%. Even the laggard sectors were positive, with retail rising 7.4% and infrastructure gaining 6.8%. Global real estate markets also performed strongly with the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed index gaining 9.0% compared to a 7.3% gain for the FTSE Global All Cap. In terms of regions, Developed Europe led with a return of 10.8%, followed by North America at 10.7%, and Developed Asia at 3.7%.

Finsum:REITs posted the strongest monthly performance since January 2019 as investors remain optimistic that the Fed will slow its rate hiking policy and REIT operational performance remains robust.