Displaying items by tag: credit

(New York)

The old fears are rising anew, and not without reason. With volatility now back in a big way, fears are once again stirring about the reliability of ETFs. In previous market flare ups there have been some major ETF losses. The ETF industry is worth $4 tn and has never been through a bear market at its current size. The biggest fears are in fixed income ETFs, where the “liquidity mismatch” is greatest between the tradable ETFs and the illiquid underlying bonds.

FINSUM: With rates and yields set to rise, there could be some volatility in fixed income, which means there could be some big issues in fixed income ETFs, especially in the most illiquid areas.

(Washington)

In what seems a status quo that has been in place for eons, the way credit is measured in the mortgage market appears poised to change. For many years, Fair Isaac Corp’s FICO score has been by far the dominant credit score used when determining mortgage issuance. Now Congress is trying to shake things up with a bank deregulation bill that would require Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider credit scores beyond FICO. If the move happens, it is expected that more mortgages would be approved.

FINSUM: This would be a huge shakeup with big implications for the market. If more mortgages get approved, it seems like credit-worthiness would fall in aggregate, with a commensurate rise in rates.

(New York)

Over the last several months there has been a lot of doom and gloom about commercial real estate. Everyone had been expecting a surge in defaults in 2016 and 2017 given that many mortgages issued in 2006 and 2017 were coming due. However, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgages has been falling for 8 consecutive months and is currently at 4.51%, compared to 5.31% this time last year and 10.34% in 2012. Many borrowers have been able to readily refinance their debts given high liquidity in the market.

FINSUM: The market for commercial mortgages looks to be in much better shape than many feared.

(New York)

So far all the attention of the selloff has been confined to two major areas: Treasury bonds, and to a greater extent, equity markets. Treasuries have stabilized a bit given all the turmoil in equities, but one of the areas investor need to watch carefully is junk bonds. The more equity-like bonds have been holding up well, but finally started to crack this week as outflows have been strong and the main junk bond ETF had its worst day in a year. The spread to Treasuries is still historically low—346 basis points—which means that there is a lot of room for a correction, though Bloomberg says this is giving fund managers some comfort.

FINSUM: If equities keep falling it seems like junk will fall some. However, the protection of yield, and the fact that earnings and credit worthiness are good should be supportive.

(New York)

A lot of analysts and market gurus are currently talking down the high yield sector. Credit spreads have been rising and it does look like we are headed into a higher rate environment, so the arguments seem reasonable. However, Barron’s says there is still time to get in on high yields. One of the best parts of the market right now is that only 10% of it is comprised of CCC rated bonds, way below its average of 15-20%. That means credit-worthiness is better. Additionally, junk firms have been refinancing for years at ultra-low rates, which will keep default rates pinned. Finally, oil and gas firms, which comprise a high share of the market, are in better shape as prices have been recovering.

FINSUM: There are definitely some strong points here, but it would be a highly contrarian view to say that the prospects for the sector look good after surging for so many years. At best, the fundamentals look solid, but the macro environment looks poor.