Displaying items by tag: bonds

(New York)

It is time to get out high yield. The sector has been seeing heightened fears for months, and prices have performed so well in the first two months of the year, that there is little value left. High yields returned 6.4% in January and February after the market came to a virtual standstill at the end of 2018. Part of the reason for the outperformance is that investors are demanding less spread to Treasuries, a fact that has not carried over to the investment grade market.

FINSUM: The pendulum has swung too far, and investment grade bonds now appear a much better value than high yield.

(New York)

Today we wanted to write a story covering the topic of rate hedged ETFs. We have been examining these lately and feel they are in high demand because of the need for stable income for retirees and the still-relevant threat of higher rates. Mortgage REIT ETFs, such as iShares’ REM really caught our eye with 9%+ yields. However, they are very rate sensitive, so we wanted to find a better option. Enter ProShares’ HYHG, or the High Yield-Interest Rate Hedged ETF. The fund yields over 6% in a highly hedged manner, it goes long high yield US and Canadian debt and simultaneously shorts US Treasuries. The expense ratio is 0.50% and the fund has $127 under management.

FINSUM: This seems like a great fund to us—6% income with only 50 basis points in fees, all in a rate hedged package.

(New York)

Investors are anxious about the chances of a recession right now. While the Fed doesn’t seem likely to hike us into one any longer, economic fundamentals have just begun to show cracks. It started with housing, then job growth for February, and now it is jobless claims. Jobless claims rose by 6,000 last week after a long stretch of falling numbers. Weekly numbers are seen as less reliable than monthly figures because of random gyrations, but the data could indicate the economy is starting to soften.

FINSUM: It is too early to tell whether this is indicative of a coming softening or just an aberration, but certainly something to pay attention to.

(New York)

If you are of the opinion that rates are not going to move higher, or if just want some great yields and aren’t too worried about rates, take a look at mortgage REIT ETFs. Mortgage REITs are a special subsector of the REIT industry, and have recently become greatly more accessible because of ETFs. For instance, consider the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM). The fund has a 30-day SEC yield of 9.36%. It is obviously rate sensitive, but even during last year’s brutal hiking cycle, it only lost 3.75%.

FINSUM: If the Fed stays put this year, which it likely will, these could be a great investment as we head into a downward rate cycle.

(New York)

Bond investors are getting nervous, and not about the Fed or interest rates. Rather, they are worried about corporate credit. Most will be aware that corporate credit issuance surged over the last decade, especially in fringe investment grade BBB debt. Now, investors are fearing a “wall of maturities”. In the next three years, one third of all triple B rated US debt will come due, a huge test for the group of highly indebted companies. Companies will then need to refinance in this much-less-friendly environment. The Bank for International Settlements warns that in the next downturn, many BBB rated bonds will be downgraded to junk, which will cause fire sales.

FINSUM: Our big worry here is that many institutional investors have strict mandates to not hold junk bonds, so if a solid number of companies fall from the BBB level, there will indeed be huge fire sales in credit markets.