The big market ruction of the last few days has sent the yield curve inversion to very worrying levels. The spread between three-month bills and ten-year Treasuries has widened to minus 32 basis points. A yield curve inversion has preceded every recession for the last 50 years. “The US has been an island of prosperity in a sea of weakness, but that looks to be ending as the impact on the consumer side from the new tariffs is likely to be bigger than the previous ones”, said a senior portfolio manager at PGIM fixed income.
FINSUM: The last time the yield curve was this inverted was April 2007. That fact alone is major warning sign.