(Washington)

Interesting news out of the media-shy Mueller investigation today. Two prosecutors on Mueller’s team are leaving or have already left the probe. The departures come following the prosecution of Paul Manafort. The news comes after an announcement in August that two other prosecutors had already left the probe. The newest departures mean there are 13 members remaining on Mueller’s team. James Comey comments that the investigation may be in its “fourth quarter” following the Manafort plea.

FINSUM: It looks like the Mueller investigation is either winding down or falling apart. Either way it seems likely it may finally conclude.

(Chicago)

Small cap stocks have been taking it on the chin. They have been getting hammered this week, and their performance (Russell 2000) has lagged the S&P 500 by almost 3% the last few days. That is a rare occurrence, which means there may be a buying opportunity. After such a bout of bad performance, the Russell 2000 has historically outperformed the S&P 500 by a percentage point over the next 20 days.

FINSUM: This could be a good short-term buying opportunity, but as ever, we struggle with these kinds of trade ideas because they seem to be based purely on historical precedent and lack any catalyst.

(New York)

Dividend stocks may have done well over the last month, but generally speaking, the last decade has been bleak. With the exception of a few months and quarters, dividend stocks have been largely out of favor with investors, who have instead devoted their capital to quick-growing growth stocks, especially in the tech sector. That said, the next year may be very good for good dividend payers, as yields are attractive and payouts are growing quickly. According to one portfolio manager in the space, “We are getting those yields and dividend growth—this is going to be a very good year for dividend growth—from the usual suspects”.

FINSUM: This seems like a risky bet to us. While dividend stocks have a place in the portfolio, the risk of rate rises to dividend sectors is considerable.

(New York)

The fiduciary rule has been dead for about six months now—much to the delight of most advisors. However, in what we feel was an inevitable development, the rule is starting to make a comeback. With the new SEC best interest rule getting a lot of negative feedback from all sides, it seemed very likely that states would take matters into their own hands and development states-level fiduciary rules. That is exactly what is happening. New Jersey is now working on a fiduciary rule of its own and it seems likely many other states will follow suit. If that transpires, advisors could face a patchwork of national rules that would make compliance a nightmare.

FINSUM: This was inevitable. States feel like the SEC’s rule is not as rigorous in its protections as the DOL rule was, and thus they feel they need to take matters into their own hands.

(New York)

The best US stock sector of 2018 is also now the market’s most risky. Consumer discretionary stocks have been on a run this year (as they often do when rates are rising), but that may be about to change. According to Morgan Stanley, consumer discretionary, which is composed of retail, apparel companies, and automakers, may be set for a big fall. “An early-cycle sector trading at peak valuations in a late-cycle environment”, is the way Morgan Stanley describes the sector. The average P/E ratio for consumer discretionary stocks is 35% above the S&P 500’s average.

FINSUM: Amazon is disproportionately responsible for the consumer discretionary’s gains this year, but the other stocks in the sector could be good shorting opportunities.