Displaying items by tag: volatility

The market is seeing some of the highest volatility since the pandemic and before that, you have to go back to the taper tantrum, but how should investors respond? While the most obvious answer is to ‘buy the dip’, the question remains where. Investors should look to industries whose fundamentals haven’t shifted in the most recent months or are less susceptible to the ongoing volatility shifts. This value tilt means leaning towards financials and commodities. Moreover, investors should steer clear of those exactly susceptible to current volatility spikes. Technology and emerging markets are easy stay-aways because inflationary pressures are going to hurt growth stocks and supply constraints will bottle up developing economies for the foreseeable future.

Finsum: More advanced hedging strategies should be considered in equity markets given the volatility, but still tilt toward value.

Volatility ETFs reached infamy in the 2018 Volmageddon episode, but these formerly destructive ETFs making a Lazzarath-like comeback. Both the SVIX and UVIX delivered record style gains amid inflows due to market gyrations UVIX closed 37% higher but was up 42% in mid-day trading. The wild up and downs came in response to the Fed meeting and a tanking S&P the following day. Advisors are steering investors toward both UVIX and SVIX because this is exactly where these products thrive. However, there is still a substantial risk as investors have suffered greatly in the past from these products and the ‘juice’ they are receiving could be detrimental on the downside.

Finsum: This is unprecedented volatility in the post-GFC, and it could continue until inflation is under control.

Goldman Sachs put out its views on the market’s volatility and how to handle it. The bank is not bullish on markets but thinks there are some very good stocks to help weather the storm. Unsurprisingly, Goldman says investors should buy stable stocks to help get through the turbulence, as such hum-drum stocks look like they have room to run. "Stable stocks also trade with undemanding valuations, supporting the likelihood that they will outperform if the macro environment grows increasingly challenging. Stocks with stable share prices and stable earnings growth generally trade with a valuation premium relative to more volatile peers and to the typical S&P 500 stock. However, relative valuations today are much lower than they have generally been during the last few years."

FINSUM: This is essentially a low-vol, value play, and that makes perfect sense right now. Very stable companies are likely to get through the economic upheaval better than their peers, so on a relative basis they should outperform.

There are several threats that are targeting portfolios right now in terms of volatility. The first is inflation, and investors need to make considerations like planning ahead for the near term for big financial costs. Advisors can also help investors with rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean variable debt will become more costly so more payments are better in the short run, and locking in fixed rates could be smart before yields climb too high. Finally, concerning general volatility due to slowing growth, it really depends on demographics. For young investors, advisors should steer them through market difficulty by bringing their experience with it previously. For more seasoned investors nearer to retirement, investors should consider pivoting to safer assets in order to avoid sharp losses in market swings.

Finsum: There are intricate strategies or specific funds to help in terms of volatility that advisors should consider.

China has another Covid-19 outbreak that could potentially shut down Beijing in the same way that the world saw a lockdown in Shanghai previously. This outbreak is sending a shockwave across all assets that are spiking volatility. The VIX hit its highest point since mid-March, and there was a mild reservation in the bond market. 10-year treasury yields spiked 14 basis points. Bonds and equities aren’t even the whole stories; everyone knows commodities are in a super cycle, but this outbreak is putting that at risk. A variety of different commodities' prices fell in response. Finally, Wall Street is starting to be concerned that a global recession is a possibility with Ukraine-Russia ongoing, Covid surging, and serious inflation risk.

Finsum: The yield curve is also starting to turn which could be really bad for equities markets.