Displaying items by tag: rates
Income investors and many wealthy clients have struggled to find the outlet post-pandemic for relatively safe capital accumulation, but real estate investment trusts are that release valve. Reflation trade, stimulus-driven output in the economy, is driving a boom in commercial and residential properties. Reopening of the parts of the economy is driving REITs like EPR Properties, which hold movie theaters, ski resorts, water parks, indoor skydiving. It’s not limited to just adventure opportunities, data centers, cannabis cultivation, and crypto mining facilities are all burgeoning opportunities in REITs. David Auerbach of World Equity Group says that capital raising is ‘in vogue in the REIT sector because they proxy traditional capital appreciation vehicles. Ground leases in particular are one of the best investments in this sector. Along with additional measures that can be taken for a tax advantage, ground leases offer the upside of equity with maturity risks and capital structure to bonds.
FINSUM: The flight to safe assets is driving a groundswell of opportunities in REITs. With the economy reopening, and stimulus pumping through it, REITs are an opportunity to hit the safe return of bonds with the equity upside.
The market was hit hard by bad economic data this week and yet markets barely budged. Consumer sentiment, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and Home Prices all swirled a whirlwind of bad news for markets and yet they hardly budged. This is because markets are convinced more than ever that bad news is good news because it will have the Fed kick the tapering can down the road. Powell made it clear that the new Fed environment will accommodate higher inflation and that while tapering might start this year, the Fed is a long way from rate hikes. This means growth-oriented interest rate-dependent stocks will do well as the Fed favors employment over inflation in its dual mandate.
FINSUM: Powell has all but confirmed a slow transition in monetary policy, don’t look for economic data to be the breaking point in your portfolio.
Usually big Wall Street banks are pretty moderate in their outlooks, and they are mostly bullish in general. Well, Bank of America Merrill Lynch didn’t hold back this week when they said the S&P 500 was at risk of a 16.5% tumble in the near term. The bank said that it expects the S&P 500 to fall 20 to 30 bp for every basis point increase in the ten-year Treasury. The bank thinks yields will rise 55 bp by the end the year, implying an up to 16.5% tumble in stocks. The bank says valuations are overstretched by almost every metric.
FINSUM: The bank did point out three sectors it felt were safer, which are energy, communications services, and health care.
The bond market is in an odd place right now. For the first part of the year, yields jumped on the threat of inflation. Then in the middle of Spring, those fears started to wane and yields started to fall. Other than a quick reversal of direction off a hot June inflation reading, that has been the trend all summer. However, the whole market looks very vulnerable to a change in sentiment. If inflation comes in warm again for July—especially coupled with some very good jobs numbers—the overall economic picture might move back to bullish, which could swing yields rapidly back in the direction they were headed in Q1.
FINSUM: Essentially this market could quickly realized it mispriced the direction of the economy, so there is a lot of risk for advisors and their clients. Nasdaq and Fidelity are having an interesting webinar on how to plan for this risk. Check it out here.
Munis have had a great year. Ever since Biden’s election, munis have surged in value because of two core assumptions. The first, and by far the biggest, is that taxes were likely to rise with Democrats in power. The second is that the Democrats would be more financially supportive of states and local governments. In the immortal words of Lee Corso, we’re here to say “not so fast!”. The assumption that taxes are going to rise looks weaker and weaker, and the same goes for the financial support for states.
FINSUM: The Democrats were not able to force through tax rises alongside this major infrastructure package, and their chances of getting any tax hikes through before the midterm elections looks poor.