Displaying items by tag: facebook

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has put out a warning about the worryingly declining breadth of the stock market this year. The bank says that “Fewer stocks are carrying the load of the market, a sign of exhaustion and, in our view, a bad signal for further price gains”. The bank appears to be quite correct. According to the article “Bloomberg points out that Amazon.com, Netflix and Microsoft accounted for 71% percent of the S&P’s gains through early July. Along with Apple, Alphabet and Facebook, they accounted for 98% percent of the gains”.

FINSUM: Honestly that could not be a more worrying sign on breadth. 98% of gains from from 6 stocks. That does not spell widespread strength. However, earnings have been good for the last month (when the reporting period for these stats ended), so gains may have been better lately.

(San Francisco)

Tech stocks have been through a rough patch, FAANGs especially. Facebook has been absolutely obliterated, while Netflix has had some steep falls. But is there still a bull case for the FAANGs? Barron’s says yes. Given Apple’s great numbers recently, the FAANGs have a little bit of momentum back. The core of the argument is dead simple—FANG stocks (leaving out Apple) are still growing at 35x the rate of the broader market, so it is hard not to see them rising. The article argues that the group is a generational trade that captures the growth of the internet.

FINSUM: When you get right down to it, the business models of the FANGs (lets leave Apple aside for a moment because it is a very different business) are very solid. We think investors will come around to that sooner rather than later.

(San Francisco)

Facebook had an absolutely historic plunge last week, losing $120 bn of market cap in an afternoon. It has not fared so well since either, as many of its tech brethren have also seen big losses (like Twitter and Netflix). There are also mounting fears about a fundamentally darker future given the scandals and controversies it has become involved in. All that said, the stock still looks like a buying opportunity, at least according to some Wall Street analysts. The key to playing the company is not to wait for signs of margins and revenue stability. “Many investors prefer to wait for the appearance of margin stability … We understand this, but stocks tend to bottom and recover well ahead of margins and trade at much higher multiples when they do”, says a stock analyst.

FINSUM: Investors really need to contextualize this loss. Revenue growth rates came in 1% below expectations, leading to a massive loss. We think there is a good buying opportunity here.

(New York)

The FT ran an article today looking at the tech meltdown from an angle no one else is, and it is definitely worth paying attention to. Their worry is how ETF issuers are going to be able to offload shares of tech giants quickly enough to match benchmarks. For instance, Facebook lost $120 bn of market cap last week, and it will be difficult to source enough buyers to unload all that stock without roiling the market further. The overall point of the article is that trouble in tech might cause the dreaded “liquidity mismatch” issue in ETFs.

FINSUM: It seems like this problem is already rectified for last week’s fall, but the overarching argument is that any falls in FAANG stock prices are going to be exacerbated by large amounts of forced ETF selling. This could explain why the losses have been so steep.

(New York)

With tech falling so strongly in recent days, a sense of panic is spreading across the media and markets, and it is all centered around one question—will the trouble in tech bring down the whole market? Tech accounts for a major part of the total capitalization of the market, and thus its ability to bring down stocks as a whole is strong. This seemed to be evidenced yesterday, as big falls in Netflix and Twitter conspired to bring all major indexes down significantly, though the Nasdaq fell the most. Now all eyes will turn to Apple, the only FAANG stock in the Dow, as it releases earnings.

FINSUM: Tech has accounted for so much of the price expansion and earnings growth of the market that it has an importance that extends even beyond these. Thus, we think a lot of investor sentiment about the whole market hinges on the performance of tech.