Displaying items by tag: bonds

Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose at a staggering 4.4% annual growth at the end of September, which is the highest number posted since 1991. This isn’t necessarily the Fed’s preferred inflation metric because food and energy prices are more volatile than other areas, but even excluding those categories core inflation was at 3.1%. On top of that, personal income is down almost 1%, which makes that inflation gain even more painful. Policy makers are worried about overall economic health as stagflation becomes a real possibility with GDP coming in at just 2%, the weakest quarter since the recovery started. Treasury Secretary Yellen says that yearly inflation will remain high but she expects monthly inflation to come down as the year closes, with headline figures coming down towards the target of 2%. On the positive side, wages and salaries kept up this month, hitting 4.6% but that still poses challenges for the labor market in its own way.

FINSUM: Inflation is still posting strong gains but keep your eyes on the monthly annualized numbers to gauge if what Yellen says is accurate.

Harbor has the benefit of sharing thoughts and perspectives with a diverse set of asset management partners around the globe...see the full story on our partner's site

Science and technology have only recently begun to disrupt the active fixed income asset management industry, as they have so many industries before it...see the full story on our partner's site

The overall bond market is almost a bust this year but investors flocking for a yield can only go to one place, junk bonds. Lending conditions are very loose with all the accommodations both fiscal and monetary policy made this year, and those attempting to stream any income have to learn to high-yield debt. Inflation is eating up anything to be gained in treasuries. Investors are now treating high yield debt like a more liquid asset than ever purely because traditional bonds are losing to inflation. All of the policy measures have made many feel corporate debt is less risky than ever but the excess demand may be tipping, as even some of the riskiest debt is being sought after. Still high nominal economic growth is good for borrowers and reduces to investors.

FINSUM: Investors should be aware of interest rates pass-through from Fed tightening to corporate debt, strong inflation could lead to weaker pass through and even lower spreads than the market is already seeing.

The fixed income (FI) portfolios of institutional investors are evolving rapidly. Investment strategists around the globe are noting that, in the search for yield, many investors are...see more on our partner's site