Displaying items by tag: S&P 500

(New York)

Small caps are in a major rut. The Russell 2000 peaked in August and is now on the verge of a bear market since then. Interestingly, small caps have fallen farther than their larger peers despite the fact that they are insulated from headwinds like the trade war. So how to pick them? The answer is to stay away from indexes and actually choose individual shares whose fundamental outlooks appear brighter than benchmarks. For instance, one fund manager says that investors should choose “quality value stocks” with “with high free-cash-flow yield, low net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, and below-market volatility”.

FINSUM: Small caps are a hugely diverse sector and some shares will inevitably have bright outlooks no matter what else may be going on in the market. The issue, of course, is the time and selection necessary to find such shares. Perhaps actively managed small cap value funds are a good bet?

(New York)

One of the guiding mantras of the markets since at least 2015 has been to buy the dip. The generally idea was that the market was on an upward trend, so every little downturn presented a good buying opportunity. One of the big problems with the markets right now is that such dip-buying has all but evaporated. With a trade war raging and a recession on the horizon, investors have lost faith that the direction of the market is upward, which means each dip now represents additionally downside risk instead of a buying opportunity.

FINSUM: That core belief in the direction of stock prices has been badly shaken and it is hard to imagine it will return any time soon.

(New York)

The market has been very bearish lately, with last week seeing the worst declines for the S&P 500 since march. The market fell 4.6% last week. This may seem like just another bout of volatility, one in a series we have had this Fall. However, the market’s fear gauge, the VIX, suggests that this selloff is different. The VIX just recently hit levels close to during October’s rout, but what is different this time is that it has sustained its momentum in a way that hasn’t happened since 2016. “This shows that unlike October, investors no longer see the market correction as a temporary dislocation, but rather driven by more persistent macro risks”, says Credit Suisse.

FINSUM: The market is continuing to reflect a comment we made yesterday—that the problems plaguing stocks are not simple to resolve, so is easy to see how prices could continue to fall for some time.

(Washington)

Markets plunged on Tuesday, at least partly because of fears over the fragility of the US-China truce on trade. China tried to bolster belief in a deal this week by publicly reaffirming its commitment. However, any hopes of a trade agreement took a definitive nose dive today as the CFO of Chinese giant Huawei was arrested in Canada at the US’ request. Futures markets dove so sharply on the news that the CME had to stop trading for a period.

FINSUM: This could be a very wild day. Market are off to a rough start this morning, but the mood in the afternoon will be the big test of sentiment, in our opinion.

(New York)

There is a lot going against equities right now. A trade war, rising rates, a weaker 2019 earnings outlook, a fading tax effect, and high valuations. There is one more to add to the list, and it could end up being the worst of all—stocks are now yielding significantly less than short-term bonds. Two-year Treasuries are yielding 2.82% while the S&P 500 is yielding just 1.9%. Yields better than bonds had been an incentive for investors to put money in stocks for years, a phenomenon called “TINA”, or “there is no alternative”.

FINSUM: With all the volatility and headwinds facing equities, and relatively unattractive yields as well, it is hard to see what force is going to swoop in to help out stock indexes.