The bond market saw ten-year yields move higher yesterday, up over 3% in fact. Despite the rise, stock markets eked out a small gain. Some would consider this a positive sign. However, Barron’s is arguing the opposite, contending that the lack of market breadth lately may indicate that a recession is on the way.
FINSUM: We favor market breadth as a good indicator of sentiment. When investors think things are good, all sectors tend to rise, when they feel bearish, those gains tend to be isolated. Notice how the Nasdaq has risen considerably this year while other markets are flat. This is a good indication of how investors are feeling.