(San Francisco)

The tech industry seems to be at the very early stages of a crackdown by regulators. At this point the talk is mostly in media and amongst the public (a few Trump tweets aside), but the push is coming, both on the back of fake news and of anti-trust concerns. Well, there may be a much more immediate threat now. Apple may be facing a near-term regulatory crackdown as its own shareholders are calling for a study into the link between the iPhone and smartphone addiction, especially in children. Apple shareholders Jana Partners and Calstrs are calling for a study to see if the phones are addictive and what negative mental effects they may have on children. Some researchers believe the young have a serious metal health problem related to smartphones, with one academic saying “It’s not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental-health crisis in decades”.

FINSUM: So Jana and Calstrs, who are calling for this, say it is better to deal with the issue now rather than later and that doing so will provide value to shareholders. If regulations on smartphones actually come to pass, it could change the entire industry.

(Washington)

2017 was a wild year for both the wealth management industry and for its most famous regulation—the fiduciary rule. But what will happen in 2018? The answer is a lot, and not all in the direction some might think. While the DOL rule does feel like it might be on its last legs given the long delay and SEC involvement in developing a new rule, there are some factors which might help it, or at least advance the fiduciary rule cause. For instance, industry buy-in of the rule, especially by big firms, is increasing as they realize it is more profitable to adhere because of higher revenues from fee-based accounts. Additionally, many states are working on their own rules, another factor likely to push federal rule-makers. Finally, the SEC may come out with its own universal rule this year.

FINSUM: We expect it to be another wild ride in the fiduciary saga this year. Our best bet is that the SEC will come close to making a rule this year, but that it will not be implemented until mid 2019.

(Seattle)

If you listen to the media, Amazon is a retail juggernaut posed to swallow just about every industry. The company has lived by Bezos’ famous mantra “your margin is my opportunity”, and has thrived by dominating commoditized low-margin businesses. However, the company has some inherent limits and part of what has made it so successful is that not every industry is an Amazon industry. In particular, one area of retail the company may not be able to crack is high-margin uncommoditized business. These are not its forte, and driving down costs and making such goods widely available is not what drives value. That is why many luxury brands, for instance luxury handbag makers, refuse to sell on Amazon.

FINSUM: We will not put anything past Amazon, especially in its home turf of retail, but the company has not done well in moving into luxury. So what.

(Washington)

The battle over client is heating up again. On one side stands the broker, and on the other, the firm. Who owns the client relationship? Both say they do. Some may have been wondering where FINRA stands on the issue. However, the regulator has just taken the easy way out, saying it has no stance on the question. FINRA says it is not involved in the broker protocol and takes no sides on the topic, though it does have arbitration rules to handle disputes. Brokers want a FINRA rule, or at least process on the issue, with one attorney saying “Finra needs to convene an industry conference to finally be able to decide on what’s a workable definition of who owns the customer … There’s got to be a better way of doing this than TROs and arbitration”.

FINSUM: The broker protocol seems likely to completely dissolve this year. Hopefully something workable will take its place, because the legal alternatives are not great for anyone (other than lawyers!).

(New York)

Call it a “silent killer”, but there is a big threat coming to US malls that many don’t see coming. While the big bout of retail bankruptcies in 2017 hit the industry hard, a less headline-grabbing, but more widespread issue might cause bigger issues in 2018. That issue is that smaller mall tenants are likely to simply not renew their leases. Smaller operators between the big anchor stores actually generate more revenue for malls, and a decrease in tenancy would be a big blow to mall revenue. Smaller operators are actually better indicators of retail health because their lease terms keep them on the lookout for greener pastures.

FINSUM: Mall REITs could be in for a rough time here. While little companies won’t get much press, this pending increase in vacancy rates could hit malls hard.