According to panelists at the SALT conference, private credit will continue to experience strong growth over the next few years. Additionally, they believe that reports of banks stepping in to more aggressively compete with private credit lenders are overblown. Instead, there’s more likely to be partnerships between private credit investors and banks in terms of originating deals and arranging terms.

Michael Arougheti, the co-founder and CEO of Ares Management, sees private credit compounding at an annual rate of 15% for the next decade. He sees growth driven by cyclical and secular factors such as companies staying private for longer, the current high-rate environment, and many ‘good’ borrowers with weak balance sheets. Another factor is the billions being raised for private credit funds across Wall Street. 

Panelists also agreed that there are many selective opportunities in fixed income and credit at the moment. And more opportunities should emerge over the next year, especially with rates staying higher for longer. Arougheti believes that there will be more opportunities created by the lack of liquidity. This underscores another difference between the current environment and past cycles for distressed debt - weakness is not sector-specific, rather, it’s more rate-induced. 

Finsum: At the SALT conference, panelists agreed that despite headlines, private credit markets will see strong growth over the next few years. They also see more attractive opportunities emerging given high rates and limited liquidity. 

Entering 2024, the consensus was that the Federal Reserve would be cutting rates in the back half of the year in response to falling inflation and a slowing economy. This has major implications for private real estate, given that trillions of dollars in loans are maturing over the next couple of years. 

Yet, economic data and inflation have been more resilient than expected. Now, rate cut odds have narrowed, while there is some chatter that the Fed may have to tighten further. Currently, the Fed continues to signal that its next move is to cut rates, albeit later and to a lesser extent than previously thought. 

Still, this is likely to be uncomfortable for many borrowers, as many are holding onto properties based on the belief that rates will be lower, leading to more favorable selling or refinancing conditions. This is especially the case for those exposed to floating-rate debt. 

According to Richard Mack, the CEO and co-founder of Mack Real Estate Group, “People are paying to hold assets, but unless rents rise quickly, eventually asset prices will have to adjust to rates instead of hoping and anticipating rate decreases. In essence, you have to pay to wait and see what kind of recovery transpires, which is different from past cycles where interim cash flow paid you to wait for appreciation.” 

Finsum: Many were confident that conditions for real estate would improve as the Fed eased policy in the second half of the year. Now, many borrowers are likely to face increased stress as rate-cut expectations have been scaled back.

According to a white paper by SEI and FP Transitions, nearly 99% of independent financial services and advisory practices fail after the founder retires, so succession planning is not just survival but an opportunity for growth.

The paper found that although 32% of advisors claim to have a succession plan, only 17% have a binding agreement, highlighting the need for more actionable planning. But this plan helps gain new clients and encourage growth because many firms don’t have a strategy in place and can’t draw in new talent. 

Succession planning should focus on building a sustainable business that aligns with long-term goals, whether through acquisition or extending ownership. The white paper also notes that while 45% of advisors have a continuity plan, many intend to implement one soon, reflecting an increasing awareness of its importance.

Finsum: The current benefits of succession planning are growing and could improve practice performance today.

A recent deep dive by Cerulli Associates explored how defined contribution (DC) managed account users and non-users perceive the value of DC managed account programs.

Managed account users appreciate the time, energy, and stress saved by delegating 401(k) and retirement planning to professionals. They also value the human advice component and the employer’s vetting of the solution.

Many non-users were shown to be swayed by the human advice component of managed accounts and affected the fee structure they were willing to accept. Adding to this a meager 16% of non-advice users feel very confident in their investment strategy, while nearly all DC managed account users express strong confidence.

As the retirement industry shifts away from defined benefit systems, individual plan participants must educate themselves and implement effective retirement investment strategies. 

Finsum: Retirement accounts seem ready-made for managed accounts and clients seem to desire them based on this research. 

In 2023, the housing market reached unprecedented heights, with median home prices soaring to an all-time high of $389,800.

While mortgage rates reached 40-year highs there was still robust demand as the microeconomics of the market continued to put upward pressure on prices. Experts predict that this trend will continue into 2024, as mortgage rates are expected to decline due to the Federal Reserve’s plan to lower benchmark interest rates.

REITs, traded on stock exchanges, allow investors to gain exposure to real estate without direct property ownership. They distribute at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders through dividends. 

While real estate investment trusts (REITs) are popular for diversifying portfolios and generating passive income, the private real estate market also offers rewarding opportunities. They can have higher IRR with more active positions but carry increased liquidity risk. 

Finsum: Investors should be extra cautious of liquidity risk in high interest rates, but the returns could certainly be worth it.