Wall Street is about to start posting 3rd quarter earnings and market participants are expecting another big round of postings. Driving most of those earnings is robust growth in the overall economy, which drove the same blockbuster Q2 reports. Some of the highest expectations are in the banking sector as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., and U.S. Bancorp are looking to lead the pack. This is driven by micro factors in their companies but also macro factors that benefit financials as interest rates look to rise and the Fed begins tapering. Outside financials, large caps like UnitedHealth Group Inc. are also looking to post very high earnings with solid financials and its valuable brand Optum is driving earnings. The delta variant may have hamstrung some companies from the great Q2, but large-cap companies could be robust enough to withstand the covid resurgence.
FINSUM: Additionally, look to energy companies to post solid Q3 numbers as high prices helped bottom lines for these large-cap juggernauts.
The post-pandemic stable recovery is starting to teeter, and threats to the portfolio are starting to creep in. Investors are now actively turning bearish and moving into cyclical value plays, while others remain optimistic that growth stocks are still the best option. The question isn’t about the future but rather what exposure has the least risk and the best upside in the current environment. The O’Shares Global Internet Giants Index ETF (OGIG) may be an opportunity to invest in growth at a great value.
Riding the Growth-Value Line
OGIG is a rules-based ETF that tracks both quality/value characteristics in internet companies. These companies need to include a majority share of their revenue from either internet commerce or technology services that underpin e-commerce. Internet companies are an obvious signal for growth and OGIG’s biggest holdings include Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from the US; and Tencent, Alibaba Group, and Shopify* from abroad. In addition to growth, the fund optimizes on the most important driver of value: revenue. Over the last three years, revenue is one of the best predictors of returns. As the first quartile of technology stocks nearly doubled the annualized return of the quartile below. Part of what makes this fund so attractive is that the revenue is a prop against future headwinds, but more on that later.
Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks have performed well. The S&P 500** has had a pure return of 94.4% since bottoming out on March 20, 2020 through 9/15/2020, but OGIG has drastically outpaced it. Growing at 153% since that same date, OGIG even dwarfs competitors like the Nasdaq 100 by over 20 percentage points. The primary reason for that is the revenue value factor. This drives a 20% discount in relative price-to-sales ratio compared to the Nasdaq 100 vs. the 3-year average. The other driver is exposure to the fastest-growing technology companies globally in emerging markets, China, and Canada.
The Future Landscape
Investors are worried about the spreading delta variant, weak economic growth, and future inflation, but all of these risks are of little concern for OGIG. E-commerce is driving the success of OGIG, which would only be fueled by a pick-up in the delta variant and has institutionalized itself in the American economy in a return to normal. Weak economic growth is a concern for non-revenue generating companies, but robust revenue generators outpace competitors in tough economic times. Meanwhile it’s the hyper-growth prospects that are concerned about future inflation as they have no current revenue. And besides, the latest inflation data suggests Powell is right about inflation being transitory.
Finally, regulation in China started to spike in July, but the lion’s share of that regulation is already passed. Historically, China has been quick to redact any policies that are a hindrance to its future growth. In fact, China’s regulation is actually providing a solid landscape for the fast-growing tech sector with more assurances moving forward.
Grow and protect with the O’Shares Global Internet Giant ETF.
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[*] Click here to view the funds top 10 holdings.
S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
NASDAQ-100 Total Return Index: The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.
Relative Price/Sales Ratio (P/S): The price-to-sales ratio is a valuation ratio that compares a company’s stock price to its revenues.
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There are risks involved with investing including the possible loss of principal. Concentration in a particular industry or sector will subject the Funds to loss due to adverse occurrences that may affect that industry or sector. The Funds may use derivatives which may involve risks different from, or greater than, those associated with more traditional investments. A Fund's emphasis on dividend-paying stocks involves the risk that such stocks may fall out of favor with investors and underperform the market. Also, a company may reduce or eliminate its dividend after the Fund's purchase of such a company's securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), are not individually redeemable, and owners of Shares may acquire those Shares from the Funds and tender those shares for redemption to the Funds in Creation Unit aggregations only, consisting of 50,000 Shares. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. The market price of Shares can be at, below, or above NAV. Market Price returns are based upon the midpoint of the bid/ask spread at 4:00 PM Eastern time (when NAV is normally determined), and do not represent the returns you would receive if you traded Shares at other times. O’Shares ETF Investments Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is not affiliated with O’Shares ETF Investments or any of its affiliates.
View the standardized performance for OGIG. Expense ratio: 0.48%
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost.
Please note that very strong performance may be due to unusually favorable conditions that are likely not sustainable.
(Rio de Janeiro)
The international monetary fund cut its growth projections globally this week. The advanced economies are still expected to keep pace, but the low-income developing countries are lagging. Many low-income countries are lagging in vaccine coverage and their exports are suffering because of this. These exports slowing led the IMF to cut the growth projection for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam from 4.3% to 2.9%. There is a slight trickle into larger economies as worker shortages have hurt American companies such as Nike. China remained robust to most of the slashes as its 2021 projection only dropped from 8.1% to 8.0%.
FINSUM: Don’t look for these growth projections to bear out in emerging markets if vaccine rates tick up. However, Fed tightening could slow growth in dollar-dependent countries.
ESG is taking over Europe and PWC is forecasting that ESG could make up €775.7bn to €1.2tn by 2025. That figure would make ESG 27-42% of Europe’s entire private financial market, for context it is about 15% currently. Driving that projection is the EU’s new sustainable finance disclosure regulations. Almost a third of the firms surveyed cited regulation as a primary force pushing their ESG investment. Sustainable investing in Europe is also seeing large growth in a public investments like pension funds. Finally, PwC said they see a new wave of private funds coming in the future rather than a re-rigging of existing financial funds to be more ESG friendly.
FINSUM: Public investment is a critical piece of Europe’s ESG investment, which is why it was very important when the U.S. opened the doors for public sustainability investment recently.
The debt clock is reading ten minutes to midnight for Congress which seems gridlocked in a game of chicken that could cost the public. Goldman Sachs issued an internal note late last week that there is a material risk that congress fails to reach a consensus on increasing the debt limit. Mitch McConnell is currently reviewing two plans to present Dems that would allow them to reach a consensus on raising the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that the government will be cash poor to pay the bills if Congress fails to raise the ceiling. Some are calling for the Treasury to mint a $1 trillion coin in order to finance if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling but Goldman says this scenario is unlikely.
FINSUM: Congress always comes around to raise the debt ceiling, but a new wave of Democrats and Republicans pose new risks that a mutual agreement can be met.