(New York)

The big global selloff in sovereign bonds, which included US treasury bonds, has spilled over into the corporate bond sector in a big way. One of the biggest ETFs tracking US corporate bonds fell to 2013 lows today. “The jump in rates is inevitably detrimental to long-duration credit performance, with LQD a classic example”, said an analyst, citing BlackRock’s popular LQD corporate bond ETF. While corporate earnings look healthy, the big issue is that investment grade bonds tend to have higher durations than high yield, which means they suffer more when rates rise.


FINSUM: We wonder how much this jump in yields might start to really affect the giant mass of BBB bonds. This kind of move in yields could prove a tipping point.

(New York)

Have you heard of the new “doom loop”? The term may seem vaguely familiar, and follows in a long line of sensationalist financial terms. Just like in its origin during the European debt crisis, the term once again refers to a European state sinking under the crushing weight of its own debt. You guessed it, Italy. The doom loop refers to the European bank habit of loading up on sovereign bonds, and in turn creating a negative reinforcment cycle where bonds fall in value, which leads to serious concerns over a bank meltdown, which then exacerbate the original economic fears. That is exactly what is now occurring after Italian bonds sold off steeply following the country’s wild budget approval.


FINSUM: Italy is one of the very largest debt markets and economies in the world, and a full scale meltdown there would surely impact global markets, even the Teflon-coated US stock market.

(New York)

Rates are rising, and with it, investors need to take a closer look at their portfolios. Rising rates can have serious effects on some dividend-focused sectors, such as utilities, REITs, or consumer discretionary, and most bonds. With that in mind, here is an ETF to help combat rising rates. One fixed income ETF built for the current rate environment is the iShares Interest Rate Hedged Corp Bd ETF (LQDH). What makes this ETF special versus others is that it is actively managed and has longer-term fixed income exposures, which stands in sharp contrast to the mostly short-term bonds these funds typically hold. It holds a 3.62% yield and charges 0.24% per year.


FINSUM: That seems a good expense ratio and yield given that this is an actively managed fund. Interest rate hedged ETFs seem like a good idea right now given the strong economy and increasingly hawkish Fed.

(New York)

Rates are rising and new statements out of the Fed make it seem like the central bank could become more aggressive with its hike. With that in mind, the Wall Street Journal thinks it is time to adjust portfolios to account for a hawkish Fed. The biggest recommendation that the WSJ makes is that investors in retirement should keep a healthy allocation to stocks. Even though rates are rising, yields may not get high enough quickly enough to provide good returns. Accordingly, keeping a solid portion of capital in equity seems smart, but don’t swing for the fences. Next, make sure to stay very diversified to mitigate risks, and particularly, beware rate sensitive sectors like utilities or REITs.


FINSUM: This is sound advice, though nothing that would not be second nature for an advisor.

(New York)

Treasury yields stayed pinned for most of this year. For many months it seemed like they were stuck in the ~2.85% range. This raised some hopes that we might have reached the crest in this hiking and rate rise cycle. However, Treasury yields have jumped considerably higher lately, and are now sitting close to their seven-year high of 3.11% from May. Yields have been moving higher as the trouble in emerging markets and Italy has waned, making investors turn to more pro-risk investments.


FINSUM: Yields are going to move in line with macroeconomic movements, especially right now. If the trade war worsens, or starts to show signs of hurting EM economies, expect a big retreat in yields.

(New York)

The whole market is generally afraid of rising rates. Both in 2015 and 2018, there were significant mini-meltdowns about the prospect of aggressive rate rises. One of the aspects that most worries investors is that higher rates will drive participants out of stocks and into higher-yielding bonds. However, while true in some respects, that narrative is far too simple. Higher rates are a symptom of a healthy and growing economy, which means the business fundamentals driving stocks are getting better, a factor which is likely far more important than incremental changes in rates.


FINSUM: We think there is some wisdom in these words, especially as they perfectly encapsulate what has happened with the market this year.

(New York)

There has been a lot of focus in the media lately about rising rates and what they will mean for investor portfolios. The ten-year yield is now well over 3% again, and the Fed looks likely to hike twice more before the end of the year. If your fixed income exposure (and equity exposure) isn’t carefully hedge, it could spell losses. Accordingly, here are three ETFs to help offset rate risk: the SPDR Blmbg Barclays Inv Grd Flt Rt ETF (FLRN), the iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT), and the ProShares High Yield—Interest Rate Hdgd (HYHG). The first two rely on floating rate bonds of short maturities, while the ProShares fund goes long corporate bonds and short Treasuries.


FINSUM: The performance of these kind of hedged ETFs has been good since rates started rising a couple years ago. They seem to have an important role to play in portfolios right now.

(New York)

Rising rates are definitively upon us. The Fed is poised to hike very soon and is likely to do so again before the end of the year. Some popular sectors, especially those with good dividends—REITs, utilities, telecoms—can suffer badly in rising rate periods. Luckily there are several ETFs that can help advisors hedge their exposure. The most common rate hedged ETFs are bond-based and use a strategy of buying higher-yielding corporate bonds and hedging their rate risk by short-selling Treasuries. The strategy seems to work well. For instance, the iShares Interest Rate Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDH) gained about 11% between the 10-year Treasury’s low in July 2016 to now, while its unhedged cousin, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) lost 0.45%.


FINSUM: That is quite a margin between the two funds, which is a testament to how well the strategy performs in rising rate periods. There are several similar funds out there, and they seem like a good idea right now.

(New York)
There has been a lot of doom and gloom about the risks of an inverted yield curve lately. An inverted curve is often seen as the best and most reliable indicator of recession, as it has accurately preceded the last several US recessions. Some are saying this time may be different as market conditions and central bank created stimulus have warped markets. Well, despite the fact that many hate the “this time will be different” mantra, it may actually be true in this case. In particular, the inverted yield curve has only been reliable in the US, whereas in Japan and the UK it is not a good indicator. This means the indicator is by no means universal, and gives weight to the idea that an inversion does not necessarily mean a recession is coming.


FINSUM: The Japanese example is particularly interesting to us as the BOJ has long had extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy. In that sense it may be the best case study for how an inversion could play out this time.

(New York)

Rates look to be rising quickly. The economy is red hot and the Fed is hawkish, meaning two more rate hikes this year look very likely. With that in mind, investors need to protect themselves from rate risk. That means a lot of sources of income, like dividends stocks and bonds, could become sources of losses. However, fortunately there are numerous ETFs that can help investors earn income while protecting against losses. One such is Pimco’s 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond (HYS). The ETF has a yield approaching 5% and has a duration of just over 2 years, putting it in the low duration category (meaning it has low rate risk).


FINSUM: This seems like a good option if you want to earn high rate-protected income. Given the current rate environment, funds like these should probably be a fixture of most portfolios.

Page 36 of 42

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