Bonds: Total Market

(New York)

Anybody who is worried about a pending bond bear market might take some solace in recent news. Bond markets are becoming increasingly skeptical of the Fed’s bullish stance on the economy, and traders believe there won’t be nearly as many rate hikes as the Fed says. The US has just seen a weak inflation report, and a flattening of the yield curve, both at home and in the Eurodollar market, spells ill for the economy. So while the Fed says it will continue to hike rates into 2020, top market analysts are saying things like “The markets are telling us that there is a pretty high risk of economic slowdown or recession at the end of 2019” (Janney Capital Management).

FINSUM: We think the economy will definitely start to weaken before 2020. Perhaps we will not have a deep recession, but we definitely don’t think there will be continuous hikes for the next year and a half, which is good news for bonds.

(New York)

Those who only pay causal attention to muni bonds might be scared away from the market by negative stories about big buildups in debt, bankruptcies, and a general erosion in credit quality. However, this year, nothing could be further from the truth. There has been a massive deleveraging of the sector in 2018, with total US muni bond issuance down a whopping 17% to-date, and on pace for 25% by the end of the year. The dearth of issuance has pushed yields down and prices up. “It’s a seller’s market”, says one muni bond analyst.

FINSUM: Part of the lack of new issuance is due to the federal tax changes, but nonetheless, the market is looking increasingly healthy.

(New York)

Everyone knows it has not been a good year for bonds, especially Treasuries and long-dated bonds. However, did you know that it is July and the bond market is on pace for its worst annual performance in a century? (yes you read that correctly). Global bonds are on pace for an annualized loss of 3.5%. So the question is how can one keep money in the market, but not get hammered. The answer is high-grade, short-term bond funds. Floating rate corporate loans and high-yield municipals seem like good areas of focus. Remember that shorter duration bonds are less susceptible to interest rate risk, which makes them safer as the Fed raises rates.

FINSUM: These picks seem spot on to us. Higher-yielding, shorter duration, and floating rates all appear to be good selections for the current environment.

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