(New York)

In what comes as an interesting article, Bloomberg has published a piece arguing that instead of the status quo, asset managers should be paying investors for the chance to manage their money. The idea comes from Mercer, a top asset management consultant, and argues that to overcome the problems plaguing active management, investors should agree to pay out a fixed percentage return to investors over a certain timeframe, with the manager keeping any excess that is produced. “We keep getting told by managers that their value creation process tends to be longer than the typical horizon of an investor … This in turn leads to short-termism. Under the new model their investment time horizon can be aligned to their value creation process”.

FINSUM: This would be a total reconceptualization of the way the industry works. The big question is how the investor would get paid if the manager fails to meet the minimum payout. It sounds like third party insurers would have to take part. This is a very interesting proposition.

(Washington)

We urge our readers in strong terms to not get their hopes too high about the new SEC “fiduciary rule”. Putting that in quotes was at the heart of why the rule looks very likely to suffer setbacks and ultimately fail to become an industry standard. The rule is already facing an onslaught of attacks, both externally and internally by the SEC’s own commissioners. The rule has been lambasted as not being a true fiduciary rule, and the long and arduous rulemaking process, combined with a formal public commentary period, mean the rule seems likely to fail.

FINSUM: We don’t think there is any way this rule will turn into an industry standard looking anything like it currently does. We suspect it is time to go back to the drawing board.

(New York)

JP Morgan has just put out a guide which may be very interesting to investors—a manual for how to navigate the end of easy money. The bank thinks the equity market’s response to earnings has been very worrisome lately, and they are very bearish. The bank recommends that in 2019, investors go underweight equities and long gold and long duration as the economic cycle ends and real rates “collapse”.

FINSUM: This is an extraordinarily bearish outlook from JP Morgan, and it seems mostly dictated by weakness in equity prices lately. Investors should take this warning seriously.

(New York)

Something very interesting is going on in the junk bond market—things are good. The market for risky corporate debt has seen a resurgence over the last couple of months, and even as benchmark yields have risen, returns for junk bonds have been positive. The spread between high yield and benchmark Treasuries has shrunk from 369 basis points to just 333 basis points since February 9th.

FINSUM: This is a very important move as it it is a positive sign about the business cycle. Junk bonds and other credits have often been leading indicators, and the fact that investors are still showing faith in them is very positive.

(Washington)

One of the elements that has been weighing on technology companies this spring has been the threat of regulations. To judge that risk, Barron’s interviewed a number of Wall Street Analysts to get their views. Overall, the consensus was that future regulatory risk for fangs was muted. One managing director for Canacord Genuity commented that, “Facebook management addressed important data and privacy issues head-on, outlining new disclosure standards for political ads and hiring aggressively against privacy initiatives.…For the time being, the worst is very likely behind Facebook stock.”

FINSUM: We tend to agree here. We do not see the government taking major action, and the worst seems to be behind tech companies, for now.