FINSUM
Zuckerberg Vows to Fight with Warren
(San Francisco)
It is getting ugly on the left. While big tech companies have always been fairly far-left politically, a new line has just been drawn. In new transcripts just released, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, says he will “go to the mat and fight” with presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren to stop her plan to break up big tech companies. “If she gets elected president, then I would bet that we will have a legal challenge, and I would bet that we will win the legal challenge. And does that still suck for us? Yeah. I mean, I don’t want to have a major lawsuit against our own government … But look, at the end of the day, if someone’s going to try to threaten something that existential, you go to the mat and you fight”, said Zuckerberg. Warren retorted “What would really ‘suck’ is if we don’t fix a corrupt system that lets giant companies like Facebook engage in illegal anti-competitive practices, stomp on consumer privacy rights, and repeatedly fumble their responsibility to protect our democracy”.
FINSUM: Warren is still a long way from office, but this is a glimpse of what the future would look like should the far-left win the election. Instead of probes and whistleblowers, we would have major courtroom dramas over anti-monopoly measures.
Is a Bear Market Starting in Real Estate?
(New York)
Is New York a bellwether of US real estate performance or is it an isolated enclave with no real relevance to the majority of the country? Hard to know, but if the former, then there is a lot to worry about. NY home sales are plummeting and just showed their worst decline since the Financial Crisis. Median sales prices in Q3 dropped 12% from the previous year, the sharpest drop since 2009. Average home value fell below $1m for the first time in four years.
FINSUM: In our opinion, this is idiosyncratic to New York. The city is seeing a huge flux of newly built apartments that are boosting inventory, and at the same time there is a new progressive mansion tax hurting demand.
JP Morgan Warns Investors to Abandon US Stocks
(New York)
Well they might not have exactly said what is in this headline, but they might as well have. The bank is urging investors to rotate into European equities and out of US stocks, shifting the former to “overweight” and the latter to “neutral”. The bank argues that European stocks represent a much better value after their underperformance over the last year. They believe European stocks have a great deal of upside and look close to “outright cheap”.
FINSUM: European stocks do seem to have a lot more room to move higher, but they also have a giant morass staring them in the eye called Brexit.
The IPO Slaughter Has Created a Buying Opportunity
(San Francisco)
2019’s IPOs could hardly have gone worse. If you take the average performance of the top IPOs this year—Lyft, Uber, Pinterest, and Chewy—you see a loss of 30%. That is phenomenally poor considering the hype of these companies coming into their IPOs. And what’s worse, that figure doesn’t even count the worst one of all—the failed WeWork IPO. However, one company which looks like it has suffered unnecessarily and deserves a long-term bet is Slack, the office communications technology. It has a highly sticky user base and is not burning cash at anything close to the rate of the others. Users report that it is almost impossible to stop using Slack’s service once your office has converted to it.
FINSUM: Slack is essentially trying to replace internal office email. That is a long road but there has been a lot of early success. It seems like it is worth of a long term bet, especially after selling off by 43% this year.
Goldman’s Big Bet on Consumers is Failing
(New York)
Over the last few years, Goldman Sachs has undertaken one of the biggest bets in its history. It is trying to change its DNA as a pillar of high finance to become a broad financial services company that includes a large consumer-facing business. This led to the launch of its new business, Marcus, which is a consumer investment and lending unit. So far, the results have not been pretty. The bank has lost about $1.3 bn from investing in Marcus, and the default rates on its loans have been much higher than average, causing it to pull back from the space somewhat. It has also caused a lot of internal tension at the bank, with many senior partners leaving as the company completely overhauls itself. On the positive side, the bank has pulled in $50 bn in consumer deposits, which is a new source of funding it never thought it would have access to.
FINSUM: Goldman’s stock is still at 2014 levels. That says it all.