(New York)

Whether we like it or not, a recession is likely headed our way. Industrial numbers are waning, and even consumer data is getting weaker. So assuming we have a recession, where is the best place to hide? A couple suggestions today. How about materials stocks, whicg have been on a tear this year, up 50% or more. Check out Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Materials, which specialize in gravel, sand, and crushed stone. Materials stocks, like garbage-disposal companies, are quite recession resistant.

FINSUM: These stocks are pricey right now, but the demand for them seems likely to stay high if the economy keeps trending downward.

(New York)

Is the bull market winding down? Most people seem to think that is inevitable after such a long run. However, there are some contending the bull market could go on for years. The argument comes from Ciovacco Capital Management, which contends that by analyzing historical charts, the stock market looks poised for another breakout out, especially considering the Brexit deal, the US-China “phase one deal”, and the generally buoyant mood on Wall Street. Ciovacco says worries about China have been the biggest drag on performance, but that a lot of progress has been made, and one more piece of good news, such as the delay of December tariffs, could spark a big run by igniting “animal spirits”.

FINSUM: This is obviously highly speculative. However, it is a decent 30,000 foot view of where the market stands right now.

(London)

Well we are about three and a half years post-Brexit, and for most of that time, the situation only seemed to be getting worse. The UK was not only squabbling with the EU, but in the in-fighting in the UK was fevered. However, this week Boris Johnson has almost inexplicably agreed in principle to a deal with the EU. The big step from here is getting it approved by Parliaments on both sides.

FINSUM: All the details of this plan are not apparent yet, but that is frankly beside the point for a US investor. What matters here is that if the UK and EU can agree a deal, then markets will stop fretting about risk on that front.

(New York)

The SEC’s new Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) is causing a lot of headaches and anxiety for brokers. Particularly, brokers are worried that the new rules governing rollovers are going to end up being a trap. Reg BI does address rollovers, even laying out some (but not all) of the factors that one should be considering when recommending them. But brokers feel the rules are too vague, which could lead to big trouble. In particular, there are fears that of all the factors, cost will have by far the most weight, which could lead to heavy penalties when recommendations are viewed in hindsight.

FINSUM: In addition to the Reg BI anxiety about rollovers, there is also growing tension because everyone is expecting the new DOL Fiduciary Rule to try to grab some power in the rollover area, which means there will be new complications to deal with.

(New York)

Barron’s has published a wide-ranging article look at the whole “income” universe and where investors should put their money. The caveat is that it is a hard time to invest for income because yields are so low. That said, there are some opportunities. A few short-term bond funds look quite compelling at the moment. Two funds from Pioneer (MAFRX) and Pimco (PFIAX) both look interesting, sporting yields of 3-3.5% on bonds with much lower rate risk. Junk bonds are yielding 6%, but you can get over 7% in closed end junk funds. Munis look like a good buy on a fundamental basis, but their yields are quite low; versus Treasuries they still have good relative value, however.

FINSUM: The trick here is that many want to keep some bonds in their portfolio despite what has gone on in fixed income markets. We would stick to short-term bonds for the most part as they have comparable yields to longer-term offerings, but less risk.