(New York)

The market has been highly unpredictable of late, with big swings in both directions. While no one knows where the market is headed, one thing is pretty clear: there are a handful of big stocks that look very risky and should probably be avoided. Here is a full list: Carvana, Expedia, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Lyft, Restoration Hardware, Beyond Meat, FirstSolar, Zendesk, BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

FINSUM: Carvana and Expedia are the most interesting for us. Carvana is considered disruptive in auto buying and is up 535% in the last year. It is also losing money hand over fist, and its digital-first method of buying and delivery looks less and less effective as the economy reopens (especially because Carvana’s prices for consumers are high). Expedia is more simple: it is up big this year on hopes that travel bookings will recover strongly this year and next. But why is it currently trading at a 40% premium to the S&P 500? Doesn’t make sense to us.

(Houston)

Oil has been on a great run this year. Underlying crude oil, as well as ETFs like XLE, have been on fire of late, and most will have noticed the higher prices at the pump. A number of forces—like rising demand and tight supply—have been supporting the market, including OPEC lowering output. All of this has led one prominent bank, Piper Sandler, to say that oil is headed back to $100 per barrel, a level it has not seen in years. According to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here … To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018”.

FINSUM: It is worth noting that this is by far the most bullish call on the street. BAML and Goldman Sachs have their calls for this year at $67 and $75, respectively.

(New York)

High yield bonds are in an interesting place. After yields fell very low during the core of the pandemic, the bonds looked relatively less attractive. Now, jumping Treasury yields have hit the asset class, but junk credit is relatively less affected because of its shorter maturities and higher yields. The reality though, is that even with things starting to look better given the recovery in the economy, it is a risky time. Therefore, junk debt is an area where active management might be the right choice. Individual credits can react very differently to market forces, and it takes a good deal of research to really understand the companies.

FINSUM: High yield managers are known for resisting the excesses of their asset class, something that index funds cannot do. Therefore, in risky times, it might be a good idea to stay active.

(New York)

Even before the pandemic and subsequent crisis, the high-yield Muni market failed to deliver the returns after taxes that the corporate bond market…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

Bond market investing hasn’t seemed so attractive recently as rates on even long-term government debt such as the 10-year Treasury hit lows…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site