Omicron is sweeping the U.S. and once again threatening to cripple the economy, already major airlines are canceling flights and potential Christmas plans. This makes moderate Dems walkout on the Build Back Better even more critical as the country could desperately be in need of stimulus at the moment. This caused Goldman to cut its GDP growth by 1% annualized in Q1 2022 and a half a percent in Q2. CPI rose at a 39-year record in November, which could make the possibility of a big BBB bill even less likely as price pressures deter policy makers. Goldman still sees the possibility that congress will aid a bit with the new omicron surging.

FINSUM: It’s tough to justify another trillion-dollar stimulus package with roaring inflation, and it might be futile with the Fed pumping the breaks; lookout for stagflation!

Some trends were definitely starting to take hold in 2021, but those are going to continue to flourish in 2022. The first of which is an active fund take over, as it appears active fund starts will outpace passive funds and see huge inflows on top of it. The next biggest trend will be more RIA’s rolling up their proprietary model portfolios into ETF launches. These model-based funds are the best way for professionals to package their expertise and deliver it effectively to clients. A number of recent SEC policies make it easier for a variety of ETF launches to happen this year so expect this explosion to continue in 2022.

FINSUM: It makes sense that model portfolios will explode, firms can be more transparent about their areas of expertise by delivering them in fund form explicitly.

Wells Fargo is aggressively pushing branch managers to maintain and recruit new brokers with a variety of incentive-based packages. For example, penalties will be in place for a drop in headcount when it comes to year-end bonuses and will include headcount retention and arrivals rather than purely based on overall revenue. Managers say they could lose big if they don’t increase new brokers and retain old ones. Wells has suffered in its ability to retain advisors as of late and is trying to play catch up with the incentives. Separate recruiting and retention bonuses will also be part of next year’s pay incentive structure.

FINSUM: These are drastic pay changes to the management structure; Wells is serious about growing its working base.

The Biden administration has put a number of new policies that are affecting annuities, and while some of them may be unintentional a number of companies may be moving to offshore havens to escape the pressure. Annuity issuers are being acquired by private companies and then becoming nomadic firms that are mainly housing themselves in Bermuda. The current Build Back Better act will affect annuity and insurance contracts with updates to the base erosion and anti-abuse tax. Additionally, many annuity issuers aren’t positive that the variety of retirement vehicles that are offering annuities might not be so great moving forward. Finally, low yields in are tricky for annuity issuers because they rely on traditionally high yield debt to finance the pseudo insurance contracts.

FINSUM: Annuities are one of the oldest financial contracts, it’s bizarre how much new regulation is being sprung on them in 2021.

Biden’s latest $2 trillion stimulus/economic reform bill is stuck in congressional limbo, and that's because not even all Dems are on board. Speaking on behalf of moderates Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator of West Virginia listed an array of suggestions to Biden in order for there to be bi-partisan support. Some of Manchin’s suggestions included means testing and work requirements for expanded child tax credits in order to stop wealthier individuals from taking advantage of the program. Other democratic senator’s ae calling for a smaller corporate tax hike and lower income taxes on weather individuals. Manchin accused staff of adding in provisions that are limiting bi-partisan support, and even having a hard time garnering support in their own party.

FINSUM: The lofty aims of Biden’s original economic reform were a pipe dream, major changes will have to come if they want to have a chance of passing the bill.