Displaying items by tag: fed
May 12th was one of the key market moments of 2021. All eyes were on new inflation data that would make or break the market. The result was a definitive “break”. Inflation came in hot, with the reading measuring 4.2%, well over already high expectations of 3.6%. Markets took a pounding, with the Nasdaq leading the day’s losses in a 2.7% fall. The Dow and the S&P 500 also fell sharply.
FINSUM: We are now in the middle of another market tantrum. It is critical to ask oneself why inflation is so troubling. The reason the market is losing is because of higher rates’ effect on tech stock valuations, but even more importantly, the timeline for the Fed’s taper. But if you can put that aside, what is actually happening is that economy is doing well, and earnings look likely to be great. We think investors should just ride out the storm.
The Fed has continued to reiterate low rate accommodations…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
Q1 ended about as poorly as possible for the treasury market as losses according to ICE indices hit…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
The bond market is a powder keg that may have only started to explode, says ING. “The bond market has been sitting on a powder keg since last week. Attitude towards duration among fixed income investors has grown cautious, to put it mildly”, says Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas at ING. “In this context, we do not blame investors for exiting at the first sign of a sell-off”, he continued.
FINSUM: Investors are currently terrified about inflation and it is hitting Treasury yields and tech stocks squarely on the chin. Our opinion is these fears are overblown and this is a market overreaction, especially as it regards tech stocks. These stocks are losing despite the fact that underlying fundamentals strongly favor the growth of tech earnings.
The market has been doing great. So great in fact, that many are nervous about a swift correction. Despite this, the market continues to push for new all-time highs each week. Credit Suisse weighed in on the market in a big way this week. To be clear, the bank is not exactly bearish on the market. Their overall position is “We have remained overweight equities on the back of highly supportive policy, a high ERP [equity risk premium], the start of a bond-for-equity switch and huge excess liquidity, while tactical indicators are not yet sending a sell signal”. That said, the bank warned that there was one very “high” risk to the market: the Fed. Credit Suisse thinks there is a good chance that the Fed suddenly gets less dovish in the second half of the year after some good growth in 1H. This would be a dramatic turn for investors and could risk a sharp reversal.
FINSUM: We have to agree with this risk. The huge stimulus and excess liquidity which are flooding the market are major tailwinds, so if they reversed, it would be a shock. The whole set up reminds of us what occurred in Q4 2018.