Displaying items by tag: bonds

On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off a new easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, its largest reduction in 16 years. However, instead of a smooth decline in bond yields, the 10-year Treasury yield actually rose afterward, highlighting the unpredictability of markets. 

The Fed has made it clear that its strategy will be a gradual one, adjusting based on economic data, with a neutral policy stance likely to be reached by 2026. Other major central banks, such as the ECB and BOE, are also approaching rate cuts cautiously to curb inflationary pressures.

 China, facing economic slowdowns, has continued cutting rates to spur growth in other sectors, despite ongoing issues in the property market.

Finsum:  As global central banks navigate rate cuts, market volatility is expected, especially with geopolitical risks and upcoming elections contributing to uncertainty.

As the Federal Reserve signals more rate cuts, long-term municipal bonds (munis) are becoming increasingly attractive due to their competitive yields, tax benefits, and potential for price appreciation. Historically, long-term munis tend to outperform when the Fed shifts from a hawkish to a dovish stance, benefiting from falling interest rates. 

These bonds also offer superior credit quality and often deliver higher tax-equivalent yields compared to taxable bonds, making them a strong alternative to Treasuries. With their longer durations, munis are particularly sensitive to rate changes, allowing for significant price gains in a falling rate environment. 

Moreover, the increased issuance of municipal bonds this year has created a favorable buying opportunity, especially as tax reforms and higher marginal rates could further boost demand for tax-exempt investments. 

Finsum: For investors looking to capitalize on rate cuts, long-term munis offer a compelling mix of yield, tax advantages, and credit stability

California’s high-yield municipal bonds, intended to fund housing for essential workers like police officers and teachers, are under financial stress. The state issued between $8 billion and $10 billion in speculative municipal bonds to convert existing apartments into affordable housing for middle-income families, but these projects are now struggling due to rising interest rates and declining occupancy.

 Local agencies often borrowed beyond the purchase price, assuming high occupancy would cover expenses, but that assumption has proven risky as the economic landscape shifts. The bonds, many of which were sold when interest rates were historically low, now face significant challenges as financial conditions tighten. 

Experts are increasingly doubtful about the sustainability of this workforce-housing model, which has not yet been tested across different economic cycles.

Finsum: We are in a time for major changes to the muni market as interest rates fluctuate. 

Treasuries gained momentum following a weaker-than-expected U.S. producer prices report, reinforcing the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more aggressively. The two-year yield, which closely mirrors Fed policy expectations, fell by 8 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreased by 6 basis points. 

Market participants are now eagerly anticipating the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data, which could further influence rate-cut expectations. However, some Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, emphasizing the need for more economic data before supporting any rate reductions.

Despite recent market volatility, with shifts from expectations of a soft landing to a hard landing, uncertainty persists. 

Finsum: Markets thought there was going to be an emergency Fed meeting last week, but look to Jackson Hole for better clarification.

Investors remain concerned about how inflation could affect their portfolios. Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts, inflation remains elevated, making it a good time to consider adding inflation hedges to your investments. Here are three top inflation hedges to protect your portfolio:

1. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): These U.S. government bonds adjust their interest rates with inflation, providing a reliable safeguard for bond investments.

1. Floating-rate bonds: These bonds adjust their payouts with rising interest rates, offering protection against inflation. You can access them through ETFs or mutual funds for added diversification.

1. Real estate: Investing in a house with a fixed-rate mortgage can hedge against inflation. If a house directly isn’t possible SFR or REITs are great options. 

Avoid long-term fixed-rate bonds and cash savings as they lose value in real terms during high inflation.

Finsum: Inflation still remains above the official Fed target and with a potential slew of cuts coming, inflation could spark again.