Alternatives
Bonds and equities have stood tall in the face of the many windfalls that have faced financial markets in the last month. However, even the bulls are getting worried and alternatives could provide relief and earn higher yield. Real estate via REITs are in a great position as an asset class and could perform well in the upcoming years with higher interest rates. Art is an overlooked alternative which has had high appreciation, outpacing 10 major classes since Covid according to CITI. Finally private equity has been a go to for many investors, and has seen record inflows post-covid while remaining less correlated with equities.
Finsum: The biggest draw to private equity is that fixed income is more correlated than ever with stocks and so alternatives provide a better hedge.
The mainstream financial world is all over the place when it comes to crypto however, Bridgewater Associates is planning on increasing their exposure to digital assets. The firm has made it clear they have some small investments in crypto, Dalio himself advises investors to allocate a small portion of their portfolios into crypto. It will most likely only be a small portion of their $150 billion portfolio but it is in phase 1 of 2. Marshall Wace, Point72 and Brevan Howard have all made crypto investments in the last year.
Finsum: Biden’s most recent crypto executive order legitimizes crypto in many investors eyes because it brings it into the traditional realm.
Private equity set many records for itself in 2021 with gigantic inflows and huge market outperformance, but could that all be slowed in 2022 by an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation? Bain & Co said that steeper capital costs driven from these two scenarios will undercut PE as an asset class in 2022. Inflation will hurt growing PE investments and the cheap flow of capital is being reduced by the conflict. There are huge risks that valuations will be much flatter from this point out. This means that the huge inflows and record-setting outperformance might not hold up in 2022.
Finsum: 2021 inflows were already higher than market expectations a natural correction could have been in place, but this could be more severe than just a standard correction.
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Biden’s administration has been an outspoken critic of crypto currency and these words now have actions behind them. Biden has signed an executive order to have various government agencies put forth a plan to regulate crypto. The admin is most concerned about consumer protection, national security, and illicit finance. Additionally the explosion in popularity in the industry and the wide array of digital assets is cause for concern because the admin is worried it might be getting out of hand. However, Biden makes it clear they want to maintain an American leadership position when it comes to the growing area of fintech. The director of the National Economic Council and the security advisor see this as a pathway forward to maintaining a leading role in digital assets and the fintech ecosystem.
Finsum: Crypto needs stable regulation; weekly threats coming from global leaders are bad. If this is on that path it's probably a good thing for crypto.
Private equity set many records for itself in 2021 with gigantic inflows and huge market outperformance, but could that all be slowed in 2022 by an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation? Bain & Co said that steeper capital costs driven from these two scenarios will undercut PE as an asset class in 2022. Inflation will hurt growing PE investments and the cheap flow of capital is being reduced by the conflict. There are huge risks that valuations will be much flatter from this point out. This means that the huge inflows and record-setting outperformance might not hold up in 2022.
Finsum: 2021 inflows were already higher than market expectations a natural correction could have been in place, but this could be more severe than just a standard correction.
Financial markets are extremely volatile as of late and that's putting it lightly, but REITs might be perfectly insulated at this moment and a great option. One of the largest sources of volatility is Russia and Ukraine but real estate is a local business and a solid option for those looking to alternatives. Another source of market risk is inflation however, real estate generally benefits from inflation. House prices outpace it and fixed-rate financing means debtors pay back less over time. Real estate also has leased on a long-term basis and insulted to most short-term shocks, and is a safe haven from typical equity volatility. Finally, if more turmoil suppresses interest rates then this will increase demand for real estate moving forward.
Finsum: We see the huge outperformance potential for real estate because of how uncorrelated the rate of return is with the rest of the markets right now.